[lbo-talk] why save? we'll just borrow from the Chinese!

Carrol Cox cbcox at ilstu.edu
Wed Aug 3 08:07:52 PDT 2005


Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>
> The only time it was ever negative since the national income accounts
> begin in 1929 was 1932 and 1933. (In fact there was an old rule of
> thumb that the difference between a recession and a depression is
> that savings rates rise in a recession and fall in a depression.) The
> savings rate averaged 8% in the 1980s, and 4% in the 1990s.

I believe there was some discussion on Pen-L a few years back over whether there had been one or two depressions in the history of industrial capitalism. I don't believe anyone argued that there had been more than two. That makes "Depression" sort of a hotly debated topic (HDT) does it not? If that old rule you cite is a correct rule, does that mean that half a century or so from now economists (if the species still exists) will be terming this period a Depression? I can sort of see the possibility of so arguing -- but it would certainly raise some thorny theoretical problems.

Carrol



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