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Peter Lavelle: Recently, we have seen Belarus and Poland go through the time-honored activity of expelling diplomats. The Poles claim no wrongdoing; the Belarus authorities claim the expelled diplomats are involved in activities beyond their official duties. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is clearly rooting out real or imagined “outside meddling” from the West.
However, Lukashenko’s problems aren’t only on the “western front” – Russia on the “eastern front” also appears to be playing a game akin to “outside meddling.” Since President Vladimir Putin assumed office in 2000, Russia policy toward Belarus has really been about integrating Belarus (however loosely) into Russia. Lukashenko, on the other hand, sees the union treaty as a safe haven to stay in power indefinitely, a subsidy to prop up his country’s statist-economy, and more recently as a line of defense against a “color revolution.”
Interestingly, and potentially dangerous for both Lukashenko and Putin, both Belarus and Russia are playing the nationalist card as Belarus approaches its 2006 presidential election. Russia’s nationalist card focuses on Belarusians as being part of the Russian nation (and the implied message “we have common ground against the West”). Lukashenko’s nationalist card is very different, i.e. defending Belarus against Russia during the February 2004 “war over gas.”
What is in play here? Is the Kremlin weakening Lukashenko (without undermining him) before the 2006 election? Stated differently, is the Kremlin basically saying to Lukashenko that if he wants to stay in office, it will be on their terms? Even Russian media has reported lately that Russian law makers and other officials have been meeting with many members of Belarus’ officialdom.
This shouldn’t sound too cynical and “meddlesome. The Kremlin certainly doesn’t want to alienate Lukashenko completely, and “lose” Belarus. The Kremlin would simply like to see Lukashenko go without a big fuss (and score a diplomatic victory with the West in the process). Isn’t it conceivable that when a very watered-down “union” comes into effect, Lukashenko will be made its president (basically for life – meaning the problem is solved)?
the rest: http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/index.html?cat=4&type=3&art=1865
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