[lbo-talk] Why the GOP is sitting pretty, despite the polls

Gar Lipow the.typo.boy at gmail.com
Wed Aug 10 01:07:45 PDT 2005


On 8/9/05, mike larkin <mike_larkin2001 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> "The dissatisfaction with Republican leadership is
> overwhelmed by "the introduction of cultural themes --
> specifically gay marriage, abortion, the importance of
> the traditional family unit, and the role of religion
> in public life -- which quickly renders [Democrats]
> almost irrelevant in terms of electoral politics at
> the national level."
>
> "Particularly among non-college voters, cultural
> issues not only superceded other priorities, they
> served as a proxy for many voters on those other
> issues...."
>
> http://politicalwire.com/archives/2005/08/09/cultural_issues_are_biggest_obstacle.html
>

Be careful here. These are focus groups not polls. They used a poll of 600 people to decide what groups to "focus" for the focus group. But it is very unlikely that the focus groups themselves approached anything like 600 people or even 400. My guess is that if all the focus groups combined contained 200 people they were doing well. That means these conclusions are not based upon a statistically valid sample.

Are focus groups worthless? Probably not. But there is a huge room for subjectivity in interpetation. The group conducting this poll is DLC associated; chickening out on cultural issue is what they want. Given this bias you would need more than just highlgihts listed in the pdf linked - you would need a detailed list of all responses to analyze it yourself. This is not like a poll where if the questions and sampling methods are honestly disclosed, a simple summary of the data is all you really need. For a focus group you really need a complete data base of questions and responses to conduct your own analysis. Without that you really are just taking the word of the people doing the study not only that they are being honest, but that they are not making an error in the course of a really sophisticated, and highly subjective analysis.



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