[lbo-talk] Better Than China, Saudi Arabia, Etc.!

KJ kjinkhoo at gmail.com
Mon Aug 15 09:08:33 PDT 2005


On 8/15/05, Chris Doss <lookoverhere1 at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> --- KJ <kjinkhoo at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Middle-aged men dying of cardiovascular problems would have to be
> > attributed to a change in behavioural patterns of the preceding 20-25
> > years. Hence, can't be attributed to the post-1990 'reforms'. Are you
> > therefore suggesting that the many reports of a severe decline in life
> > expectancy should really be attributed to the fSU period?
>
> Whatever the cause of the decline in life expectancy,
> it is gender-specific. Male life expectancy has
> dropped about 10 years, whereas female life expectancy
> only about 2.

Sorry, I was being cheeky. I really don't think the heightened post 1990 mortalities can be attributed to the cardiovascular stuff. That's more long-term stuff, I think.

The sharp post 1990 rise could not be explained by that. And indeed it wasn't -- as should be clear from the age-specific mortalities and the leading causes of death. I think the US CDC released a number of reports on this matter and, as I recall, it told a sorry tale -- heightened mortality from diphteria and pneumonia, violence and suicides, strokes, and, yes, heart disease and alcohol poisoning. Basically, the distress of those years post-1990 and esp post 1992. Figures seemed to turn around post 1994/95, but there's some inconsistency there.


> Also odd is something abour the decline in the birth
> rate -- birthrate correlates INVERSELY with poverty.

Not odd at all. That's pretty standard demographic stuff -- and that's what makes a Cuba, say, stand out, because their stats don't comport with their income levels. Demographers have spent plenty of effort to explain this inverse relation -- from children as investment, to assurance against child mortality (e.g. my own grandma had 11 children, only 4 of which survived to adulthood), to pooling (reckoning the net economic contribution of children), etc. It's amazing how quickly the birth-rates can turn around with improvements in care/health services delivery and without substantial changes in income.

kj



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