On 8/23/05, Wojtek Sokolowski <sokol at jhu.edu> wrote:
> One thought is that the price index alone does not tell the full story. <
Of course! No single ratio can tell us the whole story about anything.
> The average commute distance by auto increased by 22 % between 1983 and 1990 or about 3 % per year according to http://npts.ornl.gov/npts/1990/fat/tab6_11.pdf
> So if that rate remains constant, the average commute distance by car should have increased by some 66% as compared to the 1980s. So to compare the actual cost of gasoline consumption, we should look not just at gas prices but also at gas consumption, which increased due to longer distances (I assume that mpg remains relatively constant due to SUVs and traffic congestion).
> So by that logic, Jim's index figure of ca. 87 for 2005 should be increased by some 66% to 144 - way above the 108 peak figure for 1981.<
the problem is that commuting time is endogenous. Low gasoline prices relative to the Europe encourage commuting and big-car driving. The fall in real energy prices after the early 1980s is one reason why people in the US stopped caring very much about gas mileage.
> Methinks that cars in the US are not a mode of transportation, but a peace of mind, an illusion of security and being in control, and status symbol - so people will be driving their gas guzzling SUVs even if they were to pay $5+ for the gallon.<
Cars in the US are a mode of transportation -- and a status symbol, etc. They're two, two, things in one!
-- Jim Devine "living a life of quiet desperation -- but always with style!"