http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200512/iraq-withdrawal
The Atlantic Monthly | December 2005
The Agenda
Hypotheticals
If America Left Iraq .......much deleted for brevity:
Nir Rosen asked and answered:
Q. What about the Kurds? Won't they secede if the United States
leaves?
A. Yes, but that's going to happen anyway. All Iraqi Kurds want an
independent Kurdistan. They do not feel Iraqi. They've effectively
had more than a decade of autonomy, thanks to the UN-imposed no-fly
zone; they want nothing to do with the chaos that is Iraq. Kurdish
independence is inevitable--and positive. (Few peoples on earth
deserve a state more than the Kurds.) For the moment the Kurdish
government in the north is officially participating in the
federalist plan--but the Kurds are preparing for secession. They
have their own troops, the peshmerga, thought to contain 50,000 to
100,000 fighters. They essentially control the oil city of Kirkuk.
They also happen to be the most America-loving people I have ever
met; their leaders openly seek to become, like Israel, a proxy for
American interests. If what the United States wants is long-term
bases in the region, the Kurds are its partners. *******************
The Kurds are pro-American and control the northern oil. That's what the Repugs and Demos want. So good...stick a pin there. Policy objective achieved. America to Kurds, "You want air power, you got air power."
******** Q. Would Iran effectively take over Iraq?
A. No. Iraqis are fiercely nationalist--even the country's Shiites
resent Iranian meddling. (It is true that some Iraqi Shiites view
Iran as an ally, because many of their leaders found safe haven
there when exiled by Saddam--but thousands of other Iraqi Shiites
experienced years of misery as prisoners of war in Iran.) Even in
southeastern towns near the border I encountered only hostility
toward Iran.
*************************
This card is harder to play. Some concessions need to be made to the Iranian ruling class; but the essential thing is to get an Iraqi Shia power in place which will guarantee U.S. (British) access to the oil in the South. America to Iraqi shia power, "We got nice, big strong navies to 'protect' you, no dramas."
As for the rest of the country, "Sunnis, you may have your West--no, I mean Central Bank and Bagdhad to boot."
Foreign policy goal achieved : oil and friendly or neutralized Iraqi State(s) stabilized. Peace movement consoled. Hillary elected. Bush dies of liver disease.
Regards, Mike B)
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