Friday, Feb 11, 2005
The looming crisis on Iran
G. Parthasarathy
The US seems serious about a regime change in Iran. But any precipitate action would seriously endanger the world energy security. For, Iran will not remain passive if attacked. It could block oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, perhaps attack American allies in the Gulf and even launch missile attacks on Israel. India, which has a strong interest in preserving peace in the Persian Gulf, should start a process of consultations with all countries concerned and join others in defusing the growing tensions in the region, says G. Parthasarathy.
HISTORY, it is said, often repeats itself. The United States Congress passed the Iraq Liberation Act on October 31, 1998. The Act proclaimed: "It should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the Regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and to promote the emergence of a democratic Government to replace that regime". The American Congress sanctioned $97 million to organisations whose members included such people as the former Pentagon favourite, Ahmed Chalabi and the present US protégé, Ayyad Allawi to lead the effort against Saddam Hussein. Less than five years later, American forces invaded Iraq to unseat Saddam.
On May 6, 2004 a 'Sense of the Congress' Resolution was moved in the US House of Representatives expressing concern over Iran's nuclear programme and its support for terrorism. This Resolution demanded that Iran should "immediately and permanently cease all efforts to acquire nuclear capabilities". It called on the European Union not to proceed with a trade agreement with Iran till American demands were met.
The Resolution also called on countries such as Japan, France, and Malaysia to end all cooperation with Iran aimed at enhancing its oil and gas production. It demanded that the Russians do likewise on the Bushehr nuclear power plant being built in Iran with Russian assistance. The Resolution urged the President, Mr George W. Bush to impose sanctions on companies assisting Iran in the exploration of oil and natural gas. India and China that need Iranian oil and natural gas to sustain their economic growth could well face similar demands.
On July 21, 2004, Senators Santorum and Cornyn introduced the "Iran Freedom and Support Act of 2004" in the US Senate. Like the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, this legislation calls on Mr Bush to assist `pro democracy' groups and support 'regime change' in Iran. Shortly thereafter, at the instance of Senator Sam Brownback, the US Congress made financial allocations in the last budget, designed to help the Iranian opposition to overthrow the current regime. This has been followed by statements by Mr Bush and others that they would not rule out the use of force to "take out" Iran's nuclear facilities. The Vice-President, Mr Dick Cheney, stated that Israel could also strike at Iran's nuclear facilities.
There are credible reports that a US commando force is ascertaining the location of Iran's nuclear facilities from Pakistani scientists who were earlier involved in aiding Iran's nuclear programme and penetrating eastern Iran from bases in Pakistan, for identifying underground nuclear facilities located there. Pakistan is also reported to be providing facilities on its territory for the Iranian armed opposition group, the Mujahideen e Khalq.
In his State of the Union Address on February 3, Mr Bush proclaimed: "We are working with our European Allies to make it clear to the Iranian Regime that it must give up its enrichment programme and any plutonium reprocessing and end its support for terror. And to the Iranian people I say tonight that as you stand for your liberty, America stands by you." Mr Bush was making it clear that he would work for `regime change' in Iran.
Meanwhile, the Secretary of State, Ms Condoleeza Rice, stated that the US would not rule out the use of force to 'take out' Iran's nuclear facilities by telling audiences in Europe that any attack on Iran was not in the US agenda, at any rate not 'for now'.
Earlier, in January, the EU 3 comprising Germany, France and the UK told the Iranians that their primary demand was that Iran should fully cease its enrichment and reprocessing programmes and dismantle all efforts to achieve full nuclear cycle capabilities. Iran has responded strongly to these threats. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the European powers on January 29 saying: "The Europeans negotiating with Iran should know that they are dealing with a great, cultured nation." He indicated that if the Europeans persisted with their present stance, Iran would reconsider its cooperation with them on nuclear issues.
On the same day, the Israeli Defence Minister, Mr Shaul Mofaz, told French Parliamentarians that while he ardently hoped that "recourse to military action" would not be necessary, Iran was reaching the "point of no return' on building nuclear weapons. Mr Mofaz added that even if Iran recognised Israel, "the possession of a nuclear weapon by an extremist regime is not acceptable." All this coincided with a meeting between the Israeli Foreign Minister, Mr Silvan Shalon, and the Pakistani Prime Minister, Mr Shaukat Aziz, in Davos.
This meeting was described by the Israelis as having gone "beyond just a passing conversation in a hotel corridor." Israel then proclaimed on January 30: "Israel does not see Pakistan as an enemy but rather as an important country in the Islamic world with which it is interested in improving relations."
Pakistan appears to be following a policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds in its relations with both the US and Iran. While promising to support the Americans in their "War on Terrorism" in Afghanistan, it continues to turn a blind eye to the activities of the Taliban and the Hizb-e-Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, on its soil.
Likewise, it first helped Iran to acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons and then appears to have assisted the Americans to acquire the knowledge to `take out' facilities that the Iranians built, based on the designs provided by it.
At the same time, it has sought to claim to the Iranians that it is a good neighbour by constantly pledging cooperation for the Iran-India gas pipeline. How it will reconcile these contradictions if and when tensions mount remains to be seen. Gen Pervez Musharraf will have to become a trapeze artist to achieve this.
Israel and the US are working jointly to mount pressure on Iran to dismantle its nuclear programme. Both countries share an objective of `regime change' in Iran. They recognise that every effort should be made diplomatically to compel Iran to dismantle its uranium enrichment facilities and plutonium reprocessing facilities.
The Americans recognise that any precipitate action would meet with strong opposition from its European Allies, Russia, China and the Muslim world. Thus, while military action against Iran would not be considered at the moment, especially because of the difficult situation the US still finds itself in Iraq, the possibility of air and missile strikes against Iran by the US acting alone or in cooperation with Israel in coming years cannot be ruled out.
Any such action would pose serious dangers to world energy security. Iran will not remain passive if attacked. It could take measures to block world oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, perhaps attack US allies in the Gulf and even launch missile attacks on Israeli cities and nuclear facilities. The resulting chaos will send oil prices skyrocketing.
India has a strong interest in the preservation of peace and security in the Persian Gulf Region where nearly four million Indians reside and from where we get over 70 per cent of our oil supplies. Escalating tensions in US relations with Iran even as violence continues in Iraq and Saudi Arabia faces serious internal challenges will have adverse consequences for our economic growth.
We should commence a process of consultations on the emerging scenario with all countries concerned and join others in defusing the growing tensions in the Persian Gulf Region.
(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)
Copyright © 2005, The Hindu Business Line.