Iraqi Kurds hopeful, but other ethnic groups wary
Associated Press
Irbil, Iraq, February 11, 2005
Iraqi Kurds hope their apparent strong showing in the Jan. 30 national elections will strengthen their case for self-rule and enable them to reverse what they consider a land grab by Saddam Hussein that cut into their northern stronghold.
But Arabs and Turkomen, another ethnic group in northern Iraq, are nervously watching developments, fearful the Kurds will press demands at their expense.
An alliance of two Kurdish parties was running second in partial returns released early this week. Although the Kurds may not hold onto that second spot, they are likely to end up with a sizable bloc in the 275-member National Assembly as it works to approve a new government and draft a permanent constitution.
That would give the Kurds, an ethnic group long oppressed by Saddam, more power than they've had since the establishment of modern Iraq. It would also give them a pivotal role in the country's future.
"Baghdad is very important," said Noshirwan Mustafa, a senior official in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. "From now on, we want to influence Kurdistan from Baghdad, not from the mountains."
Rival Kurdish factions, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdish Democratic Party, managed to put aside their differences to field a joint ticket in the National Assembly contest.
There is also talk the two will eventually merge their peshmerga militias. But the next seven months are crucial, and the Kurds want to be prepared. They are willing to work with any group, they say - as long as they get what they want.
To that end they've enlisted the help of international experts to advise on the best form of federalism, a model the Kurds are currently pushing for Iraq in order to ensure they get adequate self-rule. Longterm, many would prefer outright independence. Top Kurdish officials, including deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh and Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari, discussed constitutional reforms recently in Baghdad, and Kurds held a three-day conference on the issue in the northern city of Irbil.
"Today is the time to forget about the big cake that will shrink with time," said Andre Poupart, a Canadian lawyer attending the conference, referring to the dream of Kurdish independence. "Think of the small cake that will grow with years."
Overall at this point, the Kurds say they are prepared to enter a coalition with any party, including the Shiite alliance that is leading the vote count, or the alliance led by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi - whose ticket is in third place, according to the latest count.
Allawi flew to Irbil on Thursday for talks with Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Barzani said the talks were aimed at ensuring that "our viewpoints are coherent" but gave no details about the discussions. "We are pragmatists. We will work with Allawi and with (Shiite alliance leader Abdul-Aziz) al-Hakim. It will depend on who gives us more," said Mustafa, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan official. With the Shiite religious alliance leading the vote, a Shiite will most likely be named prime minister, although al-Hakim has ruled himself out for the post. But because of the Kurds' success at the polls, PUK leader Jalal Talabani is likely to receive the largely ceremonial role of president.
Observers say it is in the interest of the Shiites to build good relations with the Kurds and bring them into the government. If the Shiites take too-dominant a role in the new government, they are likely to rile the Sunni minority, creating more support for the Sunni-led insurgency.
Yet Arabs and Turkomen are leery of the growing Kurdish importance and goals. Already, they believe the Kurds are attempting to turn out hundreds of thousands of Arabs whom Saddam moved to the north over a 30-year period to solidify control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the key Iranian border town of Khanaqin. A similar number of Kurds were forced from their homes in the process. Indeed, Kurds make no secret of their desire to control those cities.
"We will take back Kirkuk," said the PUK's Mustafa, noting that initial results in the Jan. 30 provincial elections showed the alliance list of Kurds and smaller Turkomen and Assyrian groups had won between 25 and 28 seats of the 41 seats in Kirkuk's provincial council.
In the end, the majority of the Kurdish population want independence, not federalism. About 1.9 million people put down their signatures in an unofficial referendum on the same day as the elections. Iraq's neighbours, notably Turkey, would never stand for that, fearing it could inspire their own Kurdish populations to break away.
But for now, Iraqi Kurds are prepared to see what benefits can come from participating in a new Iraqi government and postpone more radical action.
"If Kurds don't get a top job or feel part of Iraq by next year, the number of signatures in a referendum will be 3 million," said Kurdish columnist Hiwa Osman. "But if it works, it will be a lesson for the whole region."
© HT Media Ltd. 2004.