Analysis: Bratislava - planned success By Peter Lavelle Published on February 24, 2005 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, Feb. 24 (UPI) -- Media expectations that the U.S.-Russia summit in Bratislava on Thursday would be a showdown of "values" vs "interests" have not been met. However, George W. Bush did deliver his expected message expressing concerns on the state of Russia's democracy. Vladimir Putin assured Bush that Russia's democracy is on the right path. Then, both leaders got down to business.
For weeks leading up to the summit, expert analysis focused on two issues. First, America's concern on what the media has dubbed Russia "backsliding" democratic values. Bush had no choice. He had to confront his Russian counterpart on this issue. Bush, after all, has made the advancement of democracy around the world as his priority agenda during his second term in office. Bush also had to answer his critics at home who charge he has given Putin a "free pass" to construct what many call an authoritarian regime at home and neo-imperialist foreign policy.
Second, highlight the important issue of mutual democratic values without disrupting policy areas both countries have in common. Putin expected this and was not disappointed.
Bush and Putin kept to their scripts. Bush stated in the press conference following the 90-minute meeting that "I was able to share my concerns about Russia's commitment to fulfilling these universal principles" of democracy. Putin responded with his own pat retort: "Russia has made its choice in favor of democracy 14 years ago. This is our final choice and we have no way back." Adding, "Any kind of turn towards totalitarianism for Russia would be impossible."
Both leaders declared that Iran and North Korea "should not have a nuclear weapon." Iran's interest in development of a nuclear power plant, with Russian assistance, has long been a point of friction for Washington and the Kremlin. Russia has recently issued statements that have gone as far as "vouching" that Iran will not produce a nuclear weapon. Today, it appears the Kremlin has reaffirmed that commitment.
North Korea, claiming to have a nuclear weapon -- which analysts doubt -- is an issue of mutual American-Russian concern. The conventional wisdom has long held that Russia has a modicum of influence with closed Stalinist state. The reality is that the Kremlin actually has very little pull with the North Korean leadership and very much worry about having still another and very unpredictable nuclear neighbor.
Both Bush and Putin were expected to agree on a "nuclear free Iran and North Korea." Other expected agreements were signed. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Defense Minister Ivan Ivanov signed agreements to curb the number of shoulder-fired missiles that could fall into the hands of terrorists, as well as agreements concerning increased security for Russia nuclear arsenal.
Both leaders pledged to work together toward Russian membership in the World Trade Organization before the end of the year. Russia is the only major economy not currently in the trade group. Though, Putin has repeatedly warned against any attempt to use WTO accession talks, now primarily in the hands of Washington, "for political ends. Given the significant anti-Russia sentiment in the U.S. Congress, Bush has some tough lobbying ahead of him.
Energy cooperation, long expected to be on the summit agenda, was visited as well. Bush and Putin said they welcome increase Russian oil exports and more cooperation in the countries energy sectors. It is not immediately clear if the "Yukos affair" was discussed behind closed doors. However, Bush was very clear about property rights, stating "it is very important that capital see rule of law - that there be stability and there not be any doubt if someone invests that the law changed."
Was the summit a success? Both leaders expressed the opinion that they are pleased with the bilateral relationship, but only time will tell. The summit was designed not to be a failure. Bush and Putin publicly commented on both countries' mutual interests: the war on terrorism, limiting weapons proliferation, energy cooperation, and even democracy (as both leaders understand the term). The private 90-minute meeting was most likely much tougher.
Details of the meeting may come to light though planned leaks or years from now when both presidents leave office. However, one can well imagine both men were quite blunt -- a trait they have in common. Both clearly understand that the bilateral relationship is very fragile and questioned by political elites in their countries. Both should understand, after two difficult years of bilateral relations, that the potential of the U.S.-Russia partnership is bigger and more important than their personal friendship.
The best decision Bush and Putin could have agreed to behind close doors is to better institutionalize the bilateral relationship. A close personal relationship can only go so far to deal with crisis management and strong policy differences. The summit was designed not to fail; now the U.S. and Russia have to get down to the business of constructing a successful long-term country-to-country relationship.
http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/index.html?cat=4&type=3&art=1423
--- frank scott <frank at marin.cc.ca.us> wrote:
> it would have been nice if putin had done that,
> instead of relying on
> journalists...
>
> he sounded like an ass-kissing wuss in the excerpt i
> heard this morning
> on amy...apologizing for russia's totalitarin past
> and promising that it
> would-could never happen again...disgusting.
>
> fs
>
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