--Agree with much of what you say, but just a few rejoinders on each:
Hi Jeff, you wrote:
> This attributes too much to Putin. The collapse of
> the ruble in 1998
> created, in Keynesian fashion, domestic demand for
> Russian products and by
> implication investment in Russian industry absent
> since the 1980s.
> Complementing this was the rise in oil prices.
> Neither was planned by
> Yeltsin or Putin.
This is true. But it is countersensical to assert that the creation of stability has _nothing_ to do with it
--Chris, what I'm saying here is the changing economic conditions created the stability, not the other way around.
It was not
> just Russia that
> experienced this growth in the new century, but
> Urkraine, an acceleration of
> growth in the Baltic states, Belarus, etc.
>
I was under the impression that this was mostly piggy-back growth on the back of the expanding Russian economy? Ukraine is a transit point for Russian gas and a market for Russian products; Belarus exports to the Russian market; the Baltic States depend on Russian money coursing through them to Scandinavia, no?
--Chris, this is true, especially with Ukraine and Latvia, but less so with Belarus, Estonia, and Lithuania. But, the point is they arose from the confluence of 4 factors: 1) collapse of the ruble, 2) rise of oil prices, & 3) the big privatizations/grabitizations mostly complete, & 4) the focus on generating real economic activity created by factors 1-3. I don't see what Putin had to do with any of these, although, no question he's more stable than Yeltsin and his KGB training gave him a good sense of the techniques social psychology/control...
> Putin occasionally jabs at the US, as Doug asserts
> with Yukos, but
> alternates that with fawning support for the most
> reactionary elements in
> the US government.
>
Huh? It is somehow in Russia's interest not to have good relations with the United States? Russia is interested in having good relations with everybody.
--No question, he plays all sides, but I was commenting on Doug's assertion about Yukos that could be read as Putin playing a progressive role. While agreeing with the legitimacy of Putin's actions against Yukos, Putin also sees in the Pentagon kindred spirits who know how to "wet" their enemies. As one Russian Putin supporter told me this week, the US and Russia need to ally to smash the Muslims. When I suggested this approach had not worked well in the West Bank and Gaza (Christians aside), she replied, that's because the Israelis have been too soft on the Palestinians." A more suitable approach, no doubt, according to this logic, is to empty your store of munitions dating back to WW II on anyone in your way. Case in point Chechnya...
> Putin may have helped ensure Russian pensions got
> paid and salaries too.
Pensions and public-sector salaries have doubled under Putin.
--Understood they have improved from what essentially were nothing and that this still small amount has generated much political capital for Putin. And, is just inherently good...
At the same time Putin introduced
> privatized pension
> systems, although almost nobody contributes at this
> time, and wants to
> remove people's in-kind benefits and replace with
> cash, which can then erode
> the real value of these if not properly indexed to
> inflation.
This is wrong. I posted the new benefits here:
http://www.mail-archive.com/pen-l@sus.csuchico.edu/msg02382.html
The former benefits system was throughly unworkable. In fact the new system costs the Kremlin six times as much money.
--Not saying the old system was perfect, but not buying Putin's rhetoric either. Sounds like the Republicans when they are laying the ground work to reform (read: kill) social programs. They always reference how they are actually spending more, but in the long term... A student of mine from St. Petursburg is working on the pension issue. She's an economic liberal who believes in a hybrid version of the Chilean system and sees Russia moving in that direction. Note Putin essentially says guarantees will begin to disappear in 2006...
Best wishes,
Jeff
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!