RUSSIAN OIL OUTPUT EXCEEDS 1991 LEVELS
MOSCOW, January 13 (RIA Novosti) - It looks like last year will go down in history as the heyday of the Russian oil industry. The oil output in 2004 neared 460 million tons and exports grew by 17.5% for the first time over the past 15 years. However, according to expert estimates, there will be no more such a hike, Finansoviye Izvestia writes.
Oil output leaders are Surgutneftegaz that extracted 10.3% (59.6 million tons) more oil over 2003, Rosneft with its 10.2% (21.599 million tons) increase over the same year and TNK-BP with its 10.1%. (70.26 million tons). They are followed by Sibneft whose output growth totaled 8.2%, Yukos (6.1%) and Lukoil (3%). The Russian producers extracted a total of 458.8 million tons of oil, having exceeded their 2003 performance by 9%. 182.2 million tons of oil was exported outside the CIS, which is a 17.5% increase over 2003.
However, the slump of exports was visible late last year, analysts say, while the exports will see a 2% drop in the first quarter of this year. The cause is both the seasonal factor and the problems of Yuganskneftegaz passing over to its new owners. Some forecasts have it that oil exports will grow this year by about 6.6% against 17% last year. Production will be slow to grow too - approximately 5%.
All of the analysts polled see the reason for this year's production and export drop lying in the oil pricing limit and dwindling oil transport capabilities. The most efficient transport routes - via Novorossiisk, Ventspils and Primorsk - are loaded in full while the yield of domestic sales is rather low for oil producers. No matter what world oil prices are, Russian producers will carry on maximum exports to the detriment of the domestic market.
Experts believe that there will be no the world oil price growth's impact on the production rate, as was last year, because the slack has been exhausted. However, a sharp drop in world oil prices may slash exports considerably - as much as by several times - and the government then will have to decide which way to go - either reducing railway oil transport prices or resolve the problem in a more drastic fashion, i.e. by easing the tax burden on the oil industry.
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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