Social Security[...]
by Frank Newport, Editor in Chief The Gallup Poll
The Nation's Pulse is a weekly review and discussion of Gallup Poll results on topics currently in the news. Dr. Frank Newport, editor in chief of The Gallup Poll, appears frequently on CNN and other networks to present the public's perspective on the issues of the day.
Social Security
By many accounts, the Bush administration will undertake its effort to get its proposed privatization of Social Security legislation passed into law much like it would undertake a political campaign -- using market research, lobbying, direct appeals to the public, and so forth. And, it appears clear that one of these campaign tactics will be to attempt to convince Americans that Social Security is now, or will soon be, in crisis.
Social Security is not in crisis at this very moment, of course. Almost everyone agrees it will be years until there is less money coming into the system (or coming in from the trust fund) than there is going out in benefits. But there is much disagreement on exactly when the system will really be in trouble. The Bush administration argues it will be sooner rather than later.
What does the American public think? The answer: Social Security is not in a crisis state at the moment, but certainly it does have major problems.
There's an interesting backstory to the Social Security issue. We learned quite a while ago that perceptions of whether a "crisis" exists on any issue depends to a great degree on how the question is asked. When Gallup measured perceptions of the healthcare system a decade ago, Americans agreed the system was in "crisis" if the only other alternative given by the pollster was that the system was not in crisis. In other words, faced with a binary choice between "crisis" and "not a crisis," Americans tilt toward "crisis," apparently because they feel the need to indicate that not all is copacetic with the issue under discussion.
But the responses were different when we gave respondents four choices, asking if the healthcare system was a crisis, a major problem, a minor problem, or not a problem. Faced with these choices, large numbers of Americans said that healthcare was a "major problem" -- not a crisis.
In Gallup's Jan. 7-9 poll, 18% of Americans said the Social Security system is in a crisis, 53% said it has major problems, 24% said it has minor problems and only 3% said it does not have any problems. In other words, Americans believe Social Security is not in crisis at the moment, but it certainly has problems.
Plus, we know that Social Security ranks high when we ask the public to rate the importance of Congress dealing with a number of issues, overall satisfaction with Social Security is low, and only 18% of non-retired adults expect Social Security to be a main source of income when they retire. These findings could be construed as reinforcement for the Bush premise that Social Security is in trouble, although the percentage of Americans expecting Social Security to be a main source of retirement income has not changed since 1998. In other words, perceptions of Social Security have not gotten any worse.
All in all, I think it's safe to say that most Americans agree Congress should tackle Social Security in one way or another in the near future.
Beware
Beware of any unqualified statements alleging to measure public opinion on the issue of privatizing Social Security. There is no one plan for privatizing Social Security that is widely understood by the public. Americans have a vague conception that some portion of their potential benefits would be put in private investment accounts, but not much more than that. Hence, the devil is in the details. Survey respondents -- not surprisingly -- listen carefully for the details of how some hypothetical Social Security plan would work (as explained by the interviewer), and then respond accordingly.
So we find support levels for Social Security privatization soaring as high as 60% in at least one poll I've seen and as low as 29% in another. Respondents are most likely to approve of the concept when the question stresses positive things such as "choice," and the possibility that only 5% of one's Social Security funds would be invested. Respondents are much more negative when the question specifically stresses that funds would go into the stock market, that such a plan could reduce guaranteed benefits, or that there would be a need to borrow trillions of dollars in the short term (even if the money would be paid back in the future).
Bottom line: Public opinion about Social Security privatization is still up in the air, depending on how the idea is defined. One thing doesn't vary from poll to poll, however. Support for privatizing Social Security varies substantially with age. The older the American, the less they support the idea. In one recent Gallup Poll, support for privatization was 55% among 18- to 29-year-olds, but only 29% among those 65 and older.