[lbo-talk] FT: Family Values are Destroying Marriage

[snit snat]

At 10:06 AM 1/27/2005, Doug Henwood wrote:
>Michael Pollak wrote:
>
>>Nuts.  It just occurred to me that this is probably almost entirely 
>>accounted for by a statistical artifact: if you don't get married, you 
>>don't divorce.  So what happens in Blue States is that by the time you 
>>marry, you've had two long term cohabitations that led to break ups, 
>>whereas in Red States, those have been two marriages.
>
>Not exactly. Here are the stats for five interesting states:
>
>MARRIAGES & DIVORCES PER 1,000 PEOPLE, 2001
>
>                    marriages  divorces  div/mar
>
>Massachusetts         6.4       2.4     37.5%
>New York              7.9       3.0     38.0%
>
>Alabama               9.6       5.3     55.2%
>Mississippi           6.7       5.4     80.6%
>Texas                 9.4       4.1     43.6%
>
>Mass has a marriage rate almost equal to Miss's, but a divorce rate less 
>than half as high. New York has a higher marriage rate and a much lower 
>divorce rate. They like to get married in Ala & Tex, but the divorce rates 
>are also much higher.
>
>Doug

Yeah, and the variance you see may seem small, but if you place it in 
context, the DR was ~ 2.3 - 2.4 in 1950s. It rose steadily, from 2.2 in 
1960 to 5.3 in 1981 (and 1979). It has decreased steadily since then. What 
looks like a small change is really quite large (rel. speaking) and isn't 
likely explained entirely by one factor. Like the crime rate, the DR is 
partially explained by baby boom demographics. It was at it's highest when 
DR rates  and, IIRC, most divorces happen within first 10 years, the nexest 
highest occurance is around the 25 yr mark (don't quote me on that last, I 
just remember that there's usually a bump that corresponds with the time 
kids leave the nest).

also, there's an interesting discussion here, 
http://www.religioustolerance.org/chr_dira.htm , which came up elsewhere 
right after the elections when people were commenting on the 'family 
values' of the red- v blue-state-of-minders.

kelley

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We're a podunk bunch of swaggering
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