[lbo-talk] housing bubble?

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Jan 28 08:54:51 PST 2005


Dwayne Monroe wrote:


>Apologies for my synaptic inefficiency this frigid morning (at least
>for those of us on the eastern seaboard of the US) but I'm not quite
>clear on the full meaning here.
>
>
>By households ready to "jump into the housing market" do they mean
>that people who're presently not mortgage payers are, in increasing
>numbers, feeling now is the time to pull the trigger?
>
>And if that's the case, what are the dangers of this explosion of
>enthusiasm? We're told, by everyone from the local convenience
>store soft drink dispenser engineer to our own Jordan H. that
>increased home "ownership" (or, to be annoyingly precise, loan
>payments towards that goal) is a fantastic thing.

Merrill's Rosenberg is reading the survey results they way a stock market analyst reads the sentiment numbers: whenever the masses are bullish, it's time to start eyeing the exits. The logic is: (harsh version) the pubilc is usually wrong, or (softer version) when the ranks of the bullish reach historic highs, there's no one left to convert, so there won't be any fresh money coming into the market.

Doug



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