Nezavisimaya Gazeta July 6, 2005 Report by Viktoriya Panfilova: "Phantom of Expansion Fails to Stop Moscow. Russia To Help China Squeeze US Interests in Central Asia"
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become such a major political force that the United States wants to be a part of it. Yet the SCO heads of state did not even get around to considering its request to join the organization (albeit only with observer status). The "Shanghai Six" will conclude their work in Astana today by signing a blueprint for cooperation among the states in fighting terrorism, separatism, and extremism.
On this occasion, in addition to the leaders of Russia, China, and the Central Asian countries, Indian Foreign Ministry head Natwar Singh, Pakistani premier Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami -- now getting ready to hand over to his successor -- took part in the meeting as observers.
This expansion of the group of observers, which even last year only included Mongolia, has distinguished the present SCO summit from its predecessors. Now certain other countries are joining the waiting line to obtain observer status. MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations) professor Sergey Luzyanin, president of the Oriental Studies Research Foundation, believes that in the light of the evident growth in the SCO's international prestige "the creation and expansion of the institution of observers is a kind of trick: On the one hand the SCO's international expansion continues in terms of the increased numbers of observers, while on the other the SCO retains a semi-closed character, and none of the observers is going to become a full member any time soon."
Washington's wish to join the organization too has, it goes without saying, been taken into account, but at the present summit the question was not discussed. China and Russia are interested in creating a geopolitical counterweight to the United States. The States' strategic interest lies in maintaining its presence in Afghanistan, fighting radical extremism in Central Asia, and resisting the creation of a Russian-Chinese-Iranian triangle. "Observer status at the SCO could make it easier for America to solve the problem of consolidating relations and collaboration with the region's states. Especially since the United States does undoubtedly intend staying in Central Asia for the foreseeable future," American political analyst Ariel Cohen believes.
A second important factor touched on in Astana is connected with the latest events in Central Asia and throughout the post-Soviet area: the colored revolutions and the renewal of local elites occasioned by them, the spread of Islamic radicalism, and certain other threats. Both the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are trying to respond to these challenges, and that necessitates a deepening of cooperation.
Although the SCO is always talking about fighting Islamic radicalism, there is a delicate nuance here that is regularly debated at the level of the organization's secretariat: Where is the boundary between the kind of real Islamic threats and traditional challenges that emanate from Afghanistan and other zones adjoining it and purely opposition political processes? These latter processes are purely secular, in fact. Nevertheless, the SCO interprets all these protest movements primarily as Islamic, radical, and a threat to the security system in the region. By all accounts, this summit will prove an additional step in reinforcing the concept whereby protest movements are declared to involve religious extremism, Professor Luzyanin believes.
There is also another aspect: Today we are witnessing a relative differentiation of regional systems: A kind of regional bipolar system is being created. On the one side there are the SCO and the CSTO, on the other the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) -- which Uzbekistan left, as we know -- and the NATO "Partnership for Peace" project. A bipolar structure of mutual deterrence is taking shape. Whereas the United States and NATO have taken the initiative since 11 September in strengthening their positions under the slogan of fighting terrorism and extremism, China, recovering from a period of American pressure, is developing its own counterstrategy in the region together with Russia and strengthening the SCO on the bilateral level. Today the Chinese strategy of "restraining the West" is clearly starting to dominate. Considering the ambiguous nature of the China-US relationship, the intensifying anti-Western and anti-American subtext in the Chinese strategy is entirely understandable. In addition, as time goes on China is increasingly starting to position itself as no longer a regional but a world superpower. Thus Beijing is already declaring that Northeast, Central, and Southeast Asia are part of its zone of responsibility.
At the same time a new aspect is emerging: an energy and economic format. Of course, this was present in the past, but at the current summit China is intending to actualize the economic component. Albeit, not everyone is ready for that: Beijing's idea of creating a free trade zone was rejected by Russia because clearly, if it is implemented, it will no longer be possible to resist Chinese trade expansion in the region. But Beijing has not abandoned plans for economic integration, and the question is on the agenda at the present summit. So for China the SCO is an instrument not only for exerting military-political influence but also for extending its economic positions on the Central Asian subcontinent.
Although Russia does also have an interest in creating a geopolitical counterweight to the United States in the region, it should not be forgotten meanwhile that there is a danger of Chinese expansion in Central Asia. "This has always been a fear, and will remain so. But the threat is being wrongly assessed at a variety of levels, notably among the top Russian leadership. For Russia there is no alternative to China in Far Eastern and Central Asian policy," Sergey Luzyanin believes. For 15 years now Russia and China have been linked by this format, which resembles a marriage tie: There are advantages, but there are also tough conditions that are not always pleasant. In the present situation the structure of relations and the balance of interests are such that the leaderships of Russia and the post-Soviet countries close their eyes to the threats from China, considering Islamic extremism and the possibility of radical Islamists' coming to power in the Central Asian countries a more real and imminent danger than a hypothetical Chinese expansion. That phantom is inevitably going to hover over the region nevertheless.
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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