House of Labor:
In advance of the AFL-CIO convention next week in Chicago, here is our analysis, based on numerous interviews with key players and labor officials.
On the surface, the nation's umbrella federation for labor unions, the AFL-CIO, heads into its annual convention next week torn asunder on the most basic of questions: how do they regrow their ranks and leverage their political power to benefit American workers? Behind-the-scenes, there is one burning question that gets to the heart of that divide: if John Sweeney is re-elected, will he - or when will he - step down?
More importantly, will there be private, closed-door, off-the-record meetings on Friday night, Saturday and Sunday, where dissident unions intent on forcing Sweeney to step down within six months try to reach a compromise with a group of "moderate" unions?
These dissidents include the SEIU and the Teamsters, two of the largest labor unions in the country. Sweeney, on a charm offensive of sorts, has met at least twice with leaders of those dissident unions. Those negotiations have gone nowhere. Sweeney is not a natural polarizer. As Harold Meyerson points out, his desire to reach a consensus has become a polarizing force and driven the opposition to the belief that he is the biggest obstacle in the path of reform. Still, some long-time labor watchers are mystified that the two sides cannot come to an accord. The differences in proposals are narrowing. Sweeney has moved in the direction of his opponents. But there remain substantive differences on whether organizing or politics should be a priority. And most everywhere the dissidents wrote the word "must," Sweeney and allies have put in the word "should."
The inability to resolve the debate has been complicated seriously by personality conflicts and by loyalty to the labor movement's traditional mode of operating.
A group of non-dissident unions have suggested a nine-month transition period ending at a special convention where Sweeney's successor will be chosen. Unless those unions guarantee that, say, someone of the caliber of John Wilhelm of UniteHere or Terence O'Sullivan of the Laborers, would become president, and they agree to speed up the timetable, that proposal will almost certainly be rejected. Word that Richard Trumka, one of Sweeney's top deputies, wants to be the successor, has been met with silence. He is considered too close to Sweeney's regime to fully embrace the change that these unions want.
At stake next week:
1. If Sweeney is re-elected without a successorship plan in place, the SEIU will likely leave the AFL-CIO immediately. UFCW, at one time the most prominent of "centrists" in this imbroglio, might join them. If the UFCW leaves, that makes it more likely that Unite-Here would leave, too. The Teamsters on Wednesday took a step towards disaffiliation. The Laborers would stay in. These five AFL-CIO unions and the Carpenters - all with slightly but not insignificantly different agendas of their own - have already formed a rival coalition called "Change To Win." It could become the basis for a separate labor federation. The union movement would be split in two. Other AFL-CIO unions are said to be thinking of joining C2W, too.
2. Labor has a resource allocation problem. There is a set pool of money. One faction wants to build the AFL-CIO's political program and use it to elect pro-labor candidates who can grease legislative paths to organizing new workers. Another faction wants to put as much money into organizing as possible and pronto. A coalition of "centrist" or "moderate" unions like the American Federation of Teachers and the Firefighters, want to reach a compromise. This set of issues has marinated in a brew of wounded egos, institutional preferences, and tangled histories. If the SEIU leaves, and if others follow, the AFL-CIO's cash crunch would deteriorate into a crisis. It's already had to layoff more than 100 workers after it voted to devote more resources to politics. Two separate political programs are less efficient than one. Two separate legislative programs are less efficient than one. Labor folks of all stripes worry that labor's core consumers - working families - will be hurt.
3. The AFL-CIO is the get-out-the-vote engine of the Democratic Party. If the labor movement is fractured during the run-up to 2006, Democrats could pay a price at the polls. AFSCME's Gerald McEntee heads the AFL-CIO's political program. His rich union's existence depends on a robust governments. His union is losing membership as governors take away collective bargaining rights. His personal clout is not what it was when he played kingmaker for candidate Bill Clinton. So far, the dissidents have not been able to find a solution to this massive resource allocation problem that McEntee and other politically involved labor leaders can live with. (Stern's SEIU remains the biggest contributor of money and people power. SEIU spent $65 million on the 2004 election; McEntee's AFSCME spent $42 million.)
The conference officially begins on Monday, with a 10:00 a.m ET. If no compromise is reached over the weekend, it won't be a tough call for C2W unions to get out of town. Major speakers on Monday include: AFL-CIO Pres. John Sweeney, Sen. Barack Obama, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Former U.S. Senator John Edwards, Julian Bond, Senator Ted Kennedy, Senator Harry Reid. On Tuesday, highlights include Jesse Jackson and debate on a Sweeney-backed organizing resolution. The re-election of Sweeney occurs on Thursday from 8:00 am ET to 10:00 am ET.
1,000 union delegates will attend the conference at the Sheraton.