On Sun, 24 Jul 2005, Doug Henwood wrote:
> It was a little surprising to see two stories in today's NYT that concede
> things are getting really bad:
I thought exactly the same thing. If the NYT is the weathervane of elite consensus, that consensus may just have reached the tipping point.
Apropos those 2 articles, and the one by Patrick Cockburn, I've been meaning to post this military analysis. It seems like the classical statement of a conventional army losing a guerrilla war. It's got the two time-honored tropes: (1) that they only control the ground under their feet; and that there is a race of tactical counter-innovation where they are always one step behind. The only distinctively new thing is that the field of tactical innovation involves IEDs rather than small group formations. All the sources in the story seem to be the military experts most involved. And this was from a month ago when things seemed downright mild compared to what's happened since.
A few pull quotes:
<excerpts>
Detailing lessons learned from a year-long combat tour in Iraq, Col. Mike Formica of the Army's 1st Cavalry Division said it's the insurgent, not the American soldier, who "has the initiative when it comes to executing these [IED] operations." Until he attacks, Formica said, "You do not know who the enemy is," and immediately after "he melts back into society."
....
Each time American soldiers in Iraq venture outside their heavily protected bases, they enter a minefield that varies in structure, density and location every day, even every hour. A U.S. patrol may drive down a Baghdad city street without incident only to return a few hours later along the same route to find a pile of garbage, a dead animal or a broken-down car, all of which may contain an IED, placed by insurgents who track American movements.
.....
Col. Robert Davis, who commanded the explosive ordnance disposal teams in Iraq, said that when the American patrol leaves a street, "the battle space returns to the insurgent control."
.....
As in every insurgency, the civilian populace is the ultimate target of attacks, intended to "cause that group that's on the fence to come into his camp and away from you," Formica said. He said that Iraqi anger over civilian IED deaths was typically directed not at the bombers, but at American soldiers. He said the Iraqi response was: "What's the matter with you? Why aren't you protecting us?"
....
When American forces added steel plating to their Humvees and increased the use of heavy tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, the insurgents responded with sophisticated shaped-charge explosives that can penetrate even the thickest armor. Votel said insurgents recently have targeted "iconic vehicles," such as the 70-ton Abrams tank, to show American soldiers they're not safe no matter how much armor surrounds them.
....
Most frustrating to American soldiers is the realization that their ability to defeat IEDs is limited. Trying to interrupt the supply of explosives won't work, Formica explained, as there is no shortage of material for the bomb makers to use in their deadly craft.
"This was a very militarized society with ammo plants and depots all over the country; by and large, many of those were unsecured," he said. "Forget the borders being open, it doesn't matter; [the enemy] has almost an endless supply in theater that he can tap into."
<end pull quotes>
Original Source: http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=918791&C=mideast
Freely accessible copy: http://www.vfwpost1503.org/hot_topics.html
Defense News June 20, 2005 Pg. 1
U.S. Army Casts Wide Net For IED Defenses By Greg Grant
Despite a high-profile campaign to add armor to U.S. vehicles in Iraq and millions of dollars spent trying to devise high-tech countermeasures, American commanders grudgingly concede they remain a step behind insurgents' ever-adapting use of improvised explosive devices.
Detailing lessons learned from a year-long combat tour in Iraq, Col. Mike Formica of the Army's 1st Cavalry Division said it's the insurgent, not the American soldier, who "has the initiative when it comes to executing these [IED] operations." Until he attacks, Formica said, "You do not know who the enemy is," and immediately after "he melts back into society."
Formica spoke at a counter-IED seminar June 13-17 at the Army's National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Calif., that attracted more than 200 Army and Marine officers, plus experts from the British, Australian and Sri Lankan militaries.
"IEDs are the way the enemy is making contact with us," said Brig. Gen. Joseph Votel, director of the IED Defeat Task Force. The home-built weapons allow insurgents to strike when and where they choose, avoiding casualties and toe-to-toe battles with better-armed, better-trained U.S. troops.
Each time American soldiers in Iraq venture outside their heavily protected bases, they enter a minefield that varies in structure, density and location every day, even every hour. A U.S. patrol may drive down a Baghdad city street without incident only to return a few hours later along the same route to find a pile of garbage, a dead animal or a broken-down car, all of which may contain an IED, placed by insurgents who track American movements.
Simple in construction, usually comprising one or more artillery shells hooked to a rudimentary triggering device, IEDs are responsible for half of the U.S. casualties in Iraq.
Votel said IED "incidents" -- the discovery or detonation of a bomb -- have surged in recent months and currently run about 30 a day. An Army study showed that 93 percent of all IED attacks occur in Baghdad. From June 7 to 16, IEDs killed 17 American troops, and wounded an unknown number more.
The Pentagon has directed millions of dollars and countless hours trying to devise a technological counter to IEDs, but Votel was frank in his assessment that technology "offers no silver bullet." Despite attempts to develop high-tech detectors, American commanders who recently returned from Iraq admit the best means of spotting an IED remains a pair of human eyes.
The very simplicity of IED construction foils efforts to develop a technological solution. The only vulnerable point is the remote triggering mechanism -- often a radio, cell phone or garage-door opener. The most successful technologies have been electronic countermeasures that jam the signals. The Warlock, a jammer device, was rushed to Iraq and used successfully. But the vehicle-mounted Warlock does not work against all radio frequencies and only provides temporary suppression. Col. Robert Davis, who commanded the explosive ordnance disposal teams in Iraq, said that when the American patrol leaves a street, "the battle space returns to the insurgent control."
Formica said the Army had expected great things from the Compass Call, an electronic countermeasures-equipped C-130 cargo aircraft that flew low over Baghdad at night, emitting every known trigger frequency in an effort to detonate IEDs.
"We thought we had the Holy Grail," he said, "but he [the enemy] figured it out. He started doing different things, either hard wire, frequency changes or whatever. He adapted very quickly; we saw that over and over."
An entire day of the weeklong seminar was devoted to demonstrating the destructive effects of IEDs on military and civilian vehicles, even mannequins rigged with explosive vests to replicate suicide bombers. Engineers buried three 155mm projectiles in a hole beneath a 5-ton truck; the resulting fireball demolished the truck.
A demonstration of a vehicle-borne IED, or VBIED, loaded a van with 18 155mm projectiles. That detonation vaporized the van and destroyed civilian vehicles parked nearby.
Combat engineers displayed two vehicles adapted from a South African design and used in Iraq to clear transportation routes. The Meerkat is equipped with a large metal detector mounted below the vehicle and has large tires that spread its weight over a large area, allowing it to drive over without detonating pressure-sensitive mines. Another, the Buffalo, is a large, heavily armored truck with an articulating hydraulic arm that enables its crew to examine a suspected IED while remaining out of harm's way.
The demonstration included bomb-sniffing dogs and a small robot named the Matilda that is equipped with a camera mounted on a hydraulic arm and a mechanical hand able to examine suspected IEDs.
Lying in Wait
Manufactured in garages hidden around the city, VBIEDs have become the insurgents' most effective weapon due to their tremendous psychological impact. Instead of lying in wait on a roadside, these mines go searching for American soldiers. Suicide bombers cruise Baghdad's streets, looking for targets of opportunity, or waiting for a cell phone call from insurgent lookouts directing them to a target.
While vigilant U.S. troops can sometimes spot a roadside IED, they have little hope of picking a lone car bomb out of the tens of thousands of vehicles on crowded city streets. In Baghdad, a city of 8 million people, the number of vehicles on the road has skyrocketed, rising tenfold during his year in-country, Formica said.
The U.S. military circulates a countrywide "be on the lookout," or BOLO, list with makes, models and even license plate numbers of up to two dozen suspected VBIEDs. But the list is only as good as informants' tips used to compile it.
In recent weeks, Iraqi insurgents launched a sustained VBIED bombing campaign that resulted in hundreds of casualties from Iraq's civilian population and fledgling security forces. Iraq's Army and police are particularly vulnerable; they lack the armored vehicles used by American military units, which have emerged as the best protection against IEDs.
As in every insurgency, the civilian populace is the ultimate target of attacks, intended to "cause that group that's on the fence to come into his camp and away from you," Formica said. He said that Iraqi anger over civilian IED deaths was typically directed not at the bombers, but at American soldiers. He said the Iraqi response was: "What's the matter with you? Why aren't you protecting us?"
And in the United States, recent polls indicate that casualties from IEDs have helped push public support for the war to an all-time low.
When American forces added steel plating to their Humvees and increased the use of heavy tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, the insurgents responded with sophisticated shaped-charge explosives that can penetrate even the thickest armor. Votel said insurgents recently have targeted "iconic vehicles," such as the 70-ton Abrams tank, to show American soldiers they're not safe no matter how much armor surrounds them.
Most frustrating to American soldiers is the realization that their ability to defeat IEDs is limited. Trying to interrupt the supply of explosives won't work, Formica explained, as there is no shortage of material for the bomb makers to use in their deadly craft.
"This was a very militarized society with ammo plants and depots all over the country; by and large, many of those were unsecured," he said. "Forget the borders being open, it doesn't matter; [the enemy] has almost an endless supply in theater that he can tap into."