[lbo-talk] Republicans see opportunity in split

Christian A. Gregory cgregory at triad.rr.com
Thu Jul 28 06:50:47 PDT 2005


John Lacny crossposted:


> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34157-2004Dec3.html

This is very interesting. I would be interested in seeing more about the poll--ie the questions and sample size.

Certainly, the yahoo moral values explanation doesn't say a lot--partly because, in exit polls, "moral values" was so amorphous as to count for anything. But the writer of this article shows a big reason for Bush's win was in fact organizational. But then he dismisses it:

"Third myth: A wave of newly registered Republican voters in fast-growing rural and exurban areas carried Bush to victory. Reality: Among Ohio's rural and exurban voters, Bush beat Kerry by just five points among newly registered voters and by a mere two points among infrequent voters (those who did not vote in 2000)."

_Only_ five points among newly registered voters? Only? That's a huge margin, especially given the narrowness of the race. I think that's your answer right there.

Christian



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