> This is not the early 1980s, when right-wing power was young, the
> ideology sounded fresh, their forces were united, and Reagan commanded
> considerable public affection. Now the right is very familiar, tired,
> divided, and Bush is far from liked. So I don't get what you think is
> relevant from the early 1980s. Could you elaborate?
Thank you! I think most people on this list have access to enough articles and recent analysis about the right to see through the hype.
In case Chip hasn't noticed, the avatar of the religious right's so-called power, President Bush, is suffering from new highs in unpopularity. Doug just emailed an article that reports that 59% of Americans oppose the war. These numbers will grow and can only be turned around, briefly, by the capture of Osama bin Laden. In fact, bin Laden is the only ace that Bush still has up his sleeve to boost his ratings. Bush is opposed by many Americans. His social security stuff has jumped the shark with Republicans working overtime to save face.
Bush is becoming a lame duck with little political capital to spend. As Thomas Frank points out, Bush isn't interested in fighting the culture wars, except during the election cycle. This means that the guy who manifests the so-called power of the religious right isn't interested in doing stuff for them.
Chip argued that the appointment of more federal judges will set back the left 20-30 years. This is complete nonsense. Reagan and Bush Sr. appointed more conservative judges and the left is bigger now than during their terms. Even if a few judges start clamping down on dissent, there are many ways to fight back.
The religious right is still a threat, but I suspect they are fighting on fumes. Before the 2004 election, there were signs that many religious conservatives wanted to withdraw from the culture wars and politics, in favor of religion that was more focused on spiritual matters. The hype about the religious right glosses over the fact that their movement is not one that is growing at any significant pace. Once Bush leaves office they will be left with even less power than when Bush took office in 2001.
Finally, Howard Dean spoke some uncomfortable truths about the right wing last week that has them hopping mad. The Republican Party *is* a party of older, white Christians. They may have convinced millions of voters to re-elect Bush last year, but their base is getting older and the Republicans have a diversity problem. Their Karl Rove machinations will stop working on the younger generations which are savvier and more cynical about politics. The Republicans are like the Free Masons and fraternal organizations that are weird anachronisms that younger folks see as bizarre. Which hip young person would join a party whose main perceived goal is to prevent gay people from getting married?
I also predict that the right wing media machine will collapse by 2008. People are tired of it. Fox News is losing viewers. O'Reilly is old schtick. Limbaugh is due to lose audience share. The left and independent media are mobilizing, kind of like the right wing mobilized in response to the 1960s.
I'm optimistic.
Chuck