--- uvj at vsnl.com wrote:
> I don't know what exactly Lieven has in mind, but
> when did India align with the West and what is
> pro-India about the West's policy on Kashmir?
>
> Ulhas
>
(PS is it my imagination, or does Lieven look like some Mephistophelian version of Harry Potter?)
India-Pakistan tensions: Anatol Lieven
Friday, May 31, 3 p.m. ET
President Bush has said he will send Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan in the next week to try to defuse tensions between the two nuclear powers. The president urged Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to "live up to his word" and stop attacks on Indians in the disputed province of Kashmir. The chief minister of Indian-controlled Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, warned, "If cross-border terrorism and mortar firing is not stopped (by Pakistan), there's nothing that can prevent a major conflict." Is there a solution to this standoff? Chat with Anatol Lieven about India, Pakistan and Kashmir.
Anatol Lieven is Senior Associate for Foreign and Security policy in the Russia and Eurasia Center at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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Karachi,Pakistan: 1-What is the solution do you think may work towards the solve of Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan? 2-Do you think that Kashmir problem is like East Timor? coz East Timor's peoples got the right of self determination, and when they chose this right a new state emarged on the globe, plus United Nations have been passed a resulotion that India shold give the right of selfdetermination to Kashmiris peoples?
Anatol Lieven: I'm not optimistic in present circumstances in finding a solution to the Kashmir conflict. We have to recognize there is both a problem with international Islamic extremists and a very real issue of the legitimate rights and grievances of the Kashmiri people. I would favor an approach to peace with some similarities to the Northern Ireland peace process, in which questions of sovereignty took second place to the restoration of autonomy and the softening of borders.
Concerning the parallel to Timor, although there are certain similarities, I don't believe that the issue under international law is as clear cut as it was in the case of Timor.
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Ralph Davis, Mishawaka, IN: Anatol: The news media has been buzzing about the helplessness of Musharraf in reigning in the Islamic fundamentalists. What is your assessment of the situation regarding this alleged state of affairs?
Anatol Lieven: I think that Musharraf has done a good deal to reign in the Islamist radicals, including key help in the arrest of senior al-Qa'eda leaders. He could, of course, do a great deal more, but he has to pay attention to the feelings and the wishes both of ordinary Pakistanis and of the Pakistani army, especially when it comes to supporting the struggle underway in Kashmir.
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Mumbai India: What is the strategic interest of USA in resolving this conflict?
Anatol Lieven: There are two strategic interests of the United States. One is the survival of the Pakistani state as an ally, however imperfect, in the struggle against terrorism. If Pakistan were to collapse or swing in a radically anti-American direction, this would create a nightmare for American security, dwarfing that of Afghanistan. The second, U.S. interest is in preventing war and especially nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
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Columbia, SC: I have a simple question for either side - India and Pakistan. What has either country done to economically improve the region of Jammu and Kashmir? The main problem is that the people there have nothing to look forward to and after 1985 the tourism industry which was the main source of income for those people also collapsed. The Indian govt has done nothing to improve the condition of that State. So have the Pakistanis done nothing but to increase the terrorism in that region.
Anatol Lieven: I rather agree with you. The Indians have relied ovewhelmingly on repression, and the Pakistanis have supported rebellion. It would obviously be vastly better for everybody if both sides, but particularly the Indians, would sit down to discuss rational solutions to this dispute.
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San Jose, California: Pakistan and its intelligence service, ISI, has a long history of supportying terrorism in India and Afganistan. Many former US goverment officials readily acknowledge this. Why doesn't the US government officially acknowledge this?
Anatol Lieven: When it comes to support for extremists in Afghanistan, unfortunately in the past the United States as well as Pakistan played a role in this regard because of the way in which it supported the anti-Soviet resistance there. Pakistan has certainly supported terrorists in India in the past, and this should stop. However, one should remember two things: The Kashmiri population and still more the vast Indian Muslim population are certainly not under the control of Pakistan, and have played a role in generating extremist groups. Secondly, it is at least widely believed in Pakistan that Indian intelligence at certain moments in the past supported terrorist actions inside Pakistan.
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Clearwater, Florida: What is the political strength of al Qaeda in Pakistan? Any chance of al Qaeda getting closer to nuclear weaponery through a political process?
Anatol Lieven: Al-Qa'eda as such is not extremely powerful in Pakistan, but it forms part of a network of Sunni extremist groups which do have a considerable following, and which pose a very serious terrorist threat. There is no possibility of al-Qa'eda acquiring nuclear weapons through a Pakistani political process, as the religious parties in Pakistan are not remotely strong enough for this. A greater risk is that al-Qa'eda or related groups might acquire nuclear materials either through bribery or through sympathizers in the Pakistani nuclear establishment. Of course, if the Pakistani state were to collapse, whether as a result of war with India or for some other reason, then the chances of radicals acquiring nuclear weapons would be vastly increased.
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Durham, NC: It seems the geography of Kashmir to be very mountainous and not very valuable in economic terms. Why is Kashmir such an important piece of real estate that it may spark a nuclear exchange?
Anatol Lieven: The valley of Kashmir, where Frinagar is located, is of some value economically, or would be if the tourism industry could be revived. On the whole, though, as is so often the case, this conflict is far less about rational economic goals than it is about issues of pride and nationalism.
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Summit, NJ: How can US or Pakistan distinguish between Al-Qaeda and Kashmiri terrorists in camp's in Pakistan's portion of Kashmir? These guys are mercenaries, some of them will bomb Indian institutions others will plough a plane into American buildings. What prevents Al-Qaeda from recruiting in Pakistani Kashmir given that Pakistan-supported terrorist camps there make it a fertile ground for doing so?
Anatol Lieven: Most of these people certainly are not mercenaries. They are fanatics, but that's a very different question. If they were mercenaries, they would be far less dangerous. It would be a mistake to see the world of Sunni Islamist extremism and terrorism as one worldwide organization headed by al-Qa'eda. It is, rather, a net or web of different groups.
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Comment from Anatol Lieven: Unfortunately, the only way that we have of combatting such groups in Pakistan is to work with the Pakistani government and attempt to pressure and bribe them into doing what we want.
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Mt Holly, NJ: Can you describe in detail (as much as you can), what exact threats Americans are preparing to "evacuating from"?
Anatol Lieven: They're being evacuated because of the fear of nuclear incineration, although I myself don't feel that's too likely (thank God). It's also because they're afraid that the personnel might become targets of Islamist fanatics just as Indian civilians have been targeted.
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Troy, New York: Is the use of nuclear weapons a possibilty?
Anatol Lieven: It is a possibility, but I hope it isn't too likely, simply because both sides realize that even a limited nuclear exchange would do catastrophic damage to both states, and might well destroy them altogether. Therefor, I believe that even if there are military clashes in Kashmir, this will not lead to nuclear war.
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Oregon, WI: If Indian and Pakistan go to war, which country will the United Nations and the United States be more likely to aid?
Anatol Lieven: American sympathies on the whole are now on the side of India. This was true even before September 11. On the other hand, only a strong Pakistani government can help control terrorism within Pakistan, whereas India by alienating much of the Muslim world can in general only make the terrorist threat worse. The United States, therefor, has to try to balance between both countries.
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Toronto, Canada: How can Pakistan ask for referendum/plebiscite in Kashmir when Pakistan has been ruled directly or indirectly by military dictators for all of the past 55 years? Also why dont the media report that there has been ethnic cleansing in Kashmir undertaken by militants backed by Pakistan in killing, intimidation and driving away Kashmiri Hindus' from Kashmir?
Anatol Lieven: The call for a referendum was endorsed by the United Nations as a whole. Strictly speaking, it's not a question of what Pakistan wants, but of what a majority of Kashmiris want. Concerning attacks on Hindu and Sikh civilians in Kashmir by the extremists, these have been extensively reported in the Western media.
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Cary, North Carolina: When Pres.Musharraf was reluctant to join the US against Afganistan, the US had no problem giving almost an "help us or else" statement to Pak. Can nothing be done by the US in this situation, when Musharraf has repeatedly deluded them over the cross-border inflitration? Thank you for your answer.
Anatol Lieven: The question is what exactly we can or should do to Pakistan in retaliation for these infiltrations. Clearly, if we bring so much pressure to bear that the government of Musharraf collapses, this will not be in the interests of the United States and the war on terrorism.
http://cgi1.usatoday.com/mchat/20020531004/tscript.htm
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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