[lbo-talk] Hezbollah Monkey Wrenches The Script

[John Lacny]

Clearly the Lebanese events blow up the standard calculation that for every
person who shows up at a demonstration, you have to assume that the movement
has ten or so active supporters. Even if we take the conservative estimate
that half a million people showed up to the pro-Syria rally, the population
of Lebanon is what, 4 million tops? (It's difficult to know for sure since
the country hasn't had an official census since 1932 because of communal
tensions.) And other news services estimate the crowd to have been even
larger than that, maybe even a full million, which would be about 1 out of
every 4 Lebanese. And all of this over about 14,000 soldiers!

It seems like there's a real danger of the US helping re-spark the civil war
if it continues in giving so much encouragement to one coalition in the
communal conflict.

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John Lacny
http://www.johnlacny.com

Tell no lies, claim no easy victories