By Timothy Heritage
PARIS (Reuters) - The nomination of U.S. Iraq (news - web sites) war architect Paul Wolfowitz to head the World Bank (news - web sites) has dismayed many European leaders, but blocking his appointment would risk derailing efforts to improve transatlantic relations.
President Bush (news - web sites)'s choice is a particular shock for European critics of the war after his nomination last week of another administration hawk, John Bolton, as ambassador to the United Nations (news - web sites).
"Bolton followed by Wolfowitz sounds like a declaration of war -- and if not that, a declaration of contempt (for Europe)," said Nicole Bacharan, a French commentator on U.S. affairs.
German Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul said: "The enthusiasm in old Europe is not exactly overwhelming."
Many European leaders will not want to accept the appointment without putting up at least a symbolic fight, but will also be reluctant to seek a conflict with Bush just as the wounds caused by the Iraq war are starting to heal.
The reaction of French President Jacques Chirac, one of the main critics of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, highlights the quandary following Bush's announcement on Wednesday.
Chirac's spokesman Jerome Bonnafont said the French leader "took note" of the choice -- a far from enthusiastic reaction that pointed to the president's disappointment.
But choosing a wording that suggests Chirac is resigned to accepting Wolfowitz, Bonnafont said he would study the candidacy "in the spirit of friendship between France and the United States and with regard to the World Bank's vital mission."
PROVOCATIVE MOVE?
For some, Bush's choice may seem a betrayal of his vows in Brussels last month to seek better ties with Europe.
"Nominating Wolfowitz and Bolton can be seen as provocative a couple of weeks after Bush was in Brussels telling Europeans how much he wanted to work with them," said Mark Leonard, an analyst at the London-based Center for European Reform.
"But most people realize Bush needs to find jobs for such people and may feel that, from their point of view, Wolfowitz is less of risk at the World Bank ... There will be some grumbling but I think it is highly unlikely they will block him."
Washington traditionally selects the World Bank president, while Europeans choose the head of its sister organization, the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites).
Washington blocked the Europeans' choice of Caio Koch-Weser, Germany's deputy finance minister, as IMF (news - web sites) candidate 5 years ago. The job went to Horst Koehler, who is now German president.
Bush sought to prevent a backlash over Wolfowitz by calling Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (news - web sites), among others, before announcing his choice.
Francois Heisbourg, a French defense analyst who knows Wolfowitz personally, said the U.S. hold on the post was not sacrosanct and much would depend on whether a good alternative candidate could be found.
"Will the Europeans put up a big fight? I am not sure. I would probably have said no 10 days ago but the problem is that in the interval the Americans have nominated John Bolton as ambassador to the U.N.," Heisbourg said.
"I suspect Paul is going to get some of the flak which the Europeans can't shoot directly at John Bolton."
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said he looked forward to working with Wolfowitz if he was confirmed, but Bush's main ally in the Iraq war, Prime Minister Tony Blair (news - web sites), kept silent.
"We will wait and see if there are any other candidates and wait for the outcome of the process," a spokeswoman said.
Blair, like other European leaders, could face criticism from his political opponents if he simply accepts Wolfowitz, but also hopes to preserve good relations with Bush. Other European leaders could be criticized by coalition partners.
Comments by Thilo Hoppe and Fritz Kuhn, spokesmen for German coalition partners the Greens, suggested Schroeder will have to tread carefully. They said Wolfowitz was "not a good choice" and that he was unacceptable unless he changed policy.