Hate to be gloomy, but given the geological realities and our insatiable demand for crude, we're fucked.
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Doug:
Bet that's not true.
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This does seem to be what all discussions of oil pricing - whenever it climbs - get around to: either it's an indicator of peak production or we're simply witnessing the playing out of normal and temporary factors - ranging from possible 'gentlemen's agreements' to unwarranted market jitters to short-lived demand spikes.
There are credible, non-hysterical arguments on both sides. I've read essays by oil geologists who seem resigned to the rapid increase of demand and, at first static, then swiftly declining supply and counter-essays by equally well informed and experienced folks who say exactly the opposite (or push the peak date well into the future).
For a layman, it's exhausting.
At this point, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the peak theorists turn out to be uncomfortably right and the age of easy oil is done and done, or, alternatively, I live to be 85 and millions of people are still gassing up their vehicles without a care like it's 2005.
.d.