FRIDAY, MARCH 18, 2005 12:14:42 AM
Step on the gas
Condoleezza Rice is employing a characteristic carrot-and-stick policy with New Delhi. First, she dangles the bait of supplying F-16s as well as joint production of the fighter jet. The next moment Rice makes disapproving noises on the proposed India-Iran gas pipeline.
>From Washington's perspective, there is no real contradiction in what
Rice is saying. Indeed it is a win-win situation for the US. If the
F-16 deal comes through then the US defence industry would receive a
much-needed boost. One has to remember, of course, that the US won't
be supplying F-16s to India alone. Pakistan is also clamouring for
more F-16s and is likely to get them sometime in the future. So
whatever advantage India might hope to gain by acquiring the F-16s
would be quickly nullified. Next, if the US manages to scuttle the
Iran pipeline, then Tehran remains economically isolated and India's
energy requirements remain unmet. Rice has offered to compensate India
by providing American technology for nuclear power. But this would
ensure that India is dependent on US's whims and fancies. New Delhi
needs to respond to Washington's realpolitik unambiguously: We must
look to our interests first. And that entails going ahead with the
Iran pipeline, which represents a host of advantages for India, even
if it means losing out on fancy toys like the F-16s.
We have praised in these columns New Delhi's initiative to build the Iran pipeline. The benefits of the pipeline are manifold. On the energy front, natural gas from Iran is likely to meet a substantial portion of India's needs. One of the most crucial aspects of the pipeline is the prospect of forging real trade and economic ties with Pakistan.
Since the Iran pipeline will pass through Pakistan and generate considerable revenue for Islamabad, it would provide a vital economic adhesive to Indo-Pakistan relations. The returns from the pipeline could be even greater for regional security and cooperation. The more Iran is integrated into the global economy, the greater the chances of regional stability. In fact, the Iran pipeline represents a diametrically opposite path to US foreign policy: The isolation of Iran in the name of nuclear non-proliferation unwittingly only serves to prop up hardliners in Tehran. If Mani Shankar Aiyar's plans come to fruition, then the pipeline grid could eventually stretch from the Caspian Sea to China. That is unlikely to enthuse the Bush administration, which wants to play a dominant role in the region. Like New Delhi, Islamabad must also realise that its interests are best served by regional cooperation and not by kowtowing to Washington.
-- If you look at the map, you will say I am dreaming. But, as a Minister, I am paid to dream.
- Mani Shanker Aiyer, Petroleum Minister, Governemnt of India