Tuesday, March 22, 2005
VIEW: The crisis escalates —Rashed Rahman
While making a great show and pretence of wanting a peaceful resolution of the crisis, General Pervez Musharraf and the military command seem wedded to the old approach — use of overwhelming military force
Once again, the conflict in Balochistan has escalated. The government claims the latest clashes between the Bugtis and the Frontier Constabulary (FC) occurred after Bugti tribesmen ambushed a patrol of the FC. After the ambush, about 40 FC personnel were surrounded by Bugti attackers. Reinforcements sent for their rescue were also attacked. That set in motion a chain of events, according to the government’s version, resulting in eight FC personnel being killed in the gun-battle in and around Dera Bugti. The official toll of civilians is 29.
Nawab Akbar Bugti, on the other hand, tells a completely different version. He says initial hostilities were sparked off by FC’s attack on his home and the Hindu Mohallah of Dera Bugti. About 60 people were killed. The wounded were prevented from travelling to Quetta for medical treatment. Those who nevertheless made it to the provincial capital were arrested on arrival. According to Akbar Bugti, women protesting the killings were also fired at.
Although a tenuous ceasefire has taken hold, it is merely a tense stand-off. Akbar Bugti says more regular troops equipped with tanks and artillery have moved into the area, reinforcing the regular contingent deployed after the clashes in Sui in January this year. Ordinary people and government officials have been streaming out of the area, fearing further and more intense clashes.
As these lines are being written, the parliamentary committee set up by PML-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain is due to meet. From all indications, the Baloch nationalists will continue to boycott what they consider a toothless body. The National Assembly also has a discussion on the Balochistan situation on its agenda for Monday’s session. Bugti has reiterated his willingness to talk, but says he will not negotiate at gunpoint. He demands that troops and FC personnel be removed from around Dera Bugti, creating a climate more conducive for talks. He says he does not doubt the sincerity of Chaudhry Shujaat but is convinced that real power and decision-making lie elsewhere; hence Shujaat cannot deliver.
Even if by some miracle the Shujaat-Bugti parleys take place, there are overwhelming odds that nothing will be settled while the regular army and FC forces besiege the Bugtis. But if this miracle takes place and is followed by a greater one and Shujaat and Bugti agree on a way out, de-escalating the tense situation, the Baloch Liberation Amy (BLA) would still be out in the field.
Unlikely as they seem at present, even the most optimistic outcome of the Shujaat-Bugti proposed talks does not inspire confidence that the Balochistan situation will turn a corner towards a peaceful settlement on the basis of a serious redress of the neglect, deprivation and oppression that the Baloch have suffered for 58 years.
The basis for this pessimism is rooted in an awareness of what seems to be the military’s approach to the Baloch ‘problem’. While making a great show and pretence of wanting a peaceful resolution of the crisis, General Pervez Musharraf and the military command seem wedded to the old approach — use of overwhelming military force to ‘sort out’ the Baloch dissidents. This failed in the past, albeit at great cost of life and property to the Baloch and heavy casualties to the military. There is no earthly reason to believe the present scenario will play out any differently.
The Baloch guerrillas cannot be defeated militarily unless the military is contemplating genocide. The survival of the guerrilla forces and their demonstrated ability to strike at places and time of their choosing is a recipe for weakening the military-led regime over time. Alas, the lessons of the past seldom penetrate the hallowed corridors of GHQ.
The writer, currently a freelance contributor, has held editorial positions in various Pakistani newspapers
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