[lbo-talk] labor could get tagged

[Doug Henwood]

Ed Hyman, Wall Street's favorite economist (whose skill is producing 
tomorrow's conventional wisdom today) writes in today's commentary:


>LABOR COULD GET TAGGED IN 2005
>
>There are a number of reasons 2005 could be a negative year for 
>labor, similar to Reagan's air-traffic controllers firings in 1981.
>
>1) Assuming the economy slows, airlines and autos, two cyclical 
>industries, will come under more intense pressure to obtain labor 
>concessions.
>
>2) Like today, the 1995 mid-cycle slowdown was preceded by a jobless 
>recovery, ie, labor was relatively weak going into the slowdown, and 
>this could perhaps explain why the ECI [employment cost index - DH] 
>slowed sharply.
>
>3) If the economy slows, layoffs could accelerate - IBM's 13,000 
>announcement yesterday could be the start of a string of trophy 
>layoffs.