Before we go too far with this exercise we might want to consider a couple of points. In a parliamentary system there is effectively no way a pro labour but anti war voter can "punish" a pro war labour government. This means that need not be any connection between how one voted and their position on the war. That is Labour voters have to decide if they are motivated more by their anti war position than their pro-labour stance. Because in a parliamentary system a vote for an anti-war labour candidate is also a vote for Tony Blaire. In order to punish Blaire they also have to punish Labour .
Non aligned voters who may have voted for labour in the past but are willing to vote against labour on the issue of the war will most likely give their vote to the opposition parties and not to a labour MP even if that MP was against the war. So I don't see how the poll data will help us test your hypothesis (or my revised one). We would actually need poll data that asked about why people in particular ridings (polls) voted the way they did. So in a nutshell I think my original response to you also missed the mark.
Travis
> Only 25 more letters of the alphabet to go, for the #ers and %
> shift to LD or Tory.
>
> Took awhile to compile a list of pro-war Labour MP's. Anti-war taken from,
> http://www.stopwar.org.uk/article.asp?id=180303
>
> http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:w8ek1hn7lwkJ:www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snSG-02109.pdf+march+18+2003+house+of+Commons+votes+war&hl=en
>
> Results from, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,19809,00.html
>
> D.
> Voting record of all MPs: alphabetical listing
> Iraq divisions: voting record of all MPs
> 18 March 2003
> Div. 118
> Gov't motion
> Pro-war Labour MP's
>
> Adams, Irene ???
>
> Ainger, Nick
> Size of majority 1910
> 3.62 per cent swing Lab to C
> Turnout 37863
> Electorate 56245
>
> Ainsworth, Bob
> Size of majority 14222
> 2.02 per cent swing Lab to C
> Turnout 37195
> Electorate 70225
>
> Alexander, Douglas
> Size of majority 13232
> 6.24 per cent swing Lab to LD
> Turnout 37860
> Electorate 60181
>
> Anderson, Janet
> Size of majority 3676
> 1.84 per cent swing Lab to C
> 44437
> 72207
>
>
> Anderson, Donald
> (David Anderson?, if so,
> http://www.timesonline.co.uk/election/constituency/0,,200-67,00.html
> David Anderson, 52. Former miner who was jailed in the 1984/5 strike )
> 5335
> 3.7 per cent swing Lab to LD
> 39053
> 62413
>
>
> Armstrong, Hilary
> 13443
> 6.8 per cent swing Lab to LD
>
> 39509
> 68130
>
>
> Atherton, Ms Candy
> 1886
> 9.52 per cent swing Lab to LD
> 48015
> 71509
>
> Atkins, Charlotte
>
> Bailey, Adrian
>
> Barron, Kevin
>
> Bayley, Hugh
>
> Beard, Nigel
>
> Beckett, Margaret
>
> Bell, Stuart
>
> Benn, Hilary
>
> Betts, Clive
>
> Blackman, Mrs Liz
>
> Blair, Tony
>
> Blears, Ms Hazel
>
> Blunkett, David
>
> Boateng, Paul
>
> Borrow, David
> Bradley, Pete
>
> Bradshaw, Ben
>
> Brown, Gordon
>
> Brown, Nicholas
>
> Browne, Desmond
>
> Bryant, Chris
>
> Burgon, Colin
>
> Burnham, Andy
>
> Burns, Simon
>
> Byers, Stephen
>
> Caborn, Richard
>
> Cairns, David
>
> Campbell, Alan
>
> Caplin, Ivor
>
> Casale, Roger
>
> Cawsey, Ian
>
> Chapman, Ben
>
> Clark, Dr Lynda QC
>
> Clark, Paul
>
> Clarke, Charles
>
> Clelland, David
>
> Clwyd, Ann
>
> Coaker, Vernon
>
> Coffey, Ann
>
> Cook, Frank
>
> Cooper, Yvette
>
> Corston, Jean
>
> Cranston, Ross QC
>
> Cruddas, Jon
>
> Cummings, John
>
> Cunningham, Jim
>
> Cunningham, Dr Jack
>
> Cunningham, Tony
>
> Curtis-Thomas, Mrs Claire
>
> Darling, Alistair
>
> David, Wayne
>
> Davies, Geraint
>
> Dean, Mrs Janet
>
> Dismore, Andrew
>
> Dobbin, Jim
>
> Donohoe, Brian H
>
> Dowd, Jim
>
> Drown, Julia
>
> Dunwoody, Hon Gwyneth
>
> Eagle, Angela
>
> Eagle, Maria
>
> Ellman, Mrs Louise
>
> Ennis, Jeff
>
> Farrelly, Paul
>
> Field, Frank
>
> Fitzpatrick, Jim
>
> Fitzsimons, Mrs Lorna
>
> Flint, Caroline
>
> Follett, Barbara
>
> Foster, Michael
>
> Foster, Derek
>
> Foulkes, George
>
> Gapes, Mike
>
> Gardiner, Barry
>
> George, Bruce
>
> Gilroy, Linda
>
> Godsiff, Roger
>
> Goggins, Paul
>
> Griffiths, Jane
>
> Griffiths, Nigel
>
> Hain, Peter
>
> Hall, Mike
>
> Hanson, David
>
> Harman, Harriet QC
>
> Harris, Tom
>
> Healey, John
>
> Henderson, Ivan
>
> Hendrick, Mark
>
> Heppell, John
>
> Hewitt, Patricia
>
> Hill, Keith
>
> Hodge, Margaret MBE
>
> Hoon, Geoff
>
> Hope, Phil
>
> Howarth, George
>
> Howarth, Alan CBE
>
> Howells, Dr Kim
>
> Hoyle, Lindsay
>
> Hughes, Beverley
>
> Hughes, Kevin
>
> Hurst, Alan
>
> Hutton, John
>
> Illsley, Eric
>
> Ingram, Adam
>
> Irranca-Davies, Hugh
>
> Jamieson, David
>
> Jenkins, Brian
>
> Johnson, Alan
>
> Johnson, Miss Melanie
>
> Jones, Helen
>
> Jones, Kevan
>
> Jones, Martyn
>
> Jowell, Tessa
>
> Joyce, Eric
>
> Kaufman, Gerald
>
> Keeble, Ms Sally
>
> Keen, Alan
>
> Keen, Ann
>
> Kelly, Ruth
>
> Kemp, Fraser
>
> Kennedy, Jane
>
> Khabra, Piara S
>
> King, Andy
>
> King, Ms Oona
>
> Knight, Jim
>
> Kumar, Dr Ashok
>
> Ladyman, Dr Stephen
>
> Lammy, David
>
> Lawrence, Mrs Jackie
>
> Laxton, Bob
>
> Leslie, Christopher
>
> Levitt, Tom
>
> Lewis, Ivan
>
> Liddell, Helen
>
> Linton, Martin
>
> Love, Andrew
>
> MacDonald, Calum
>
> MacDougall, John
>
> Mackinlay, Andrew
>
> MacShane, Denis
>
> Mactaggart, Fiona
>
> Mandelson, Peter
>
> Mann, John
>
> Marris, Rob
>
> Marsden, Gordon
>
> Martlew, Eric
>
> McAvoy, Thomas
>
> McCabe, Stephen
>
> McCartney, Ian
>
> McDonagh, Siobhain
>
> McFall, John
>
> McGuire, Mrs Anne
>
> McIsaac, Shona
>
> McKenna, Rosemary CBE
>
> McNulty, Tony
>
> McWalter, Tony
>
> McWilliam, John
>
> Meacher, Michael
>
> Merron, Gillian
>
> Michael, Alun
>
> Milburn, Alan
>
> Miliband, David
>
> Miller, Andrew
>
> Moffatt, Laura
>
> Mole, Chris
>
> Moonie, Dr Lewis
>
> Moran, Margaret
>
> Morley, Elliot
>
> Morris, Estele
>
> Mountford, Kali
>
> Mudie, Georg
>
> Munn, Ms Meg
>
> Murphy, Jim
>
> Murphy, Paul
>
> Norman, Archie
>
> O'Brien, Bill
>
> O'Brien, Mike
>
> Olner, Bill
>
> O'Neill, Martin
>
> Palmer, Dr Nick
>
> Pearson, Ian
>
> Picking, Anne
>
> Pickthall, Colin
>
> Pond, Chris
>
> Pope, Greg
>
> Pound, Stephen
>
> Prentice, Bridget
>
> Prescott, John
>
> Primarolo, Dawn
>
> Prosser, Gwyn
>
> Purnell, James
>
> Quinn, Lawrie
>
> Rammell, Bill
>
> Rapson, Syd BEM
>
> Raynsford, Nick
>
> Reed, Andy
>
> Reid, Dr John
>
> Robertson, John
>
> Robinson, Geoffrey
>
> Roche, Mrs Barbara
>
> Rooney, Terry
>
> Ross, Ernie
>
> Roy, Frank
>
> Ruane, Chris
>
> Russell, Christine
>
> Shaw, Jonathan R.
>
> Sheerman, Barry
>
> Sheridan, Jim
>
> Short, Clare *
>
> Simon, Siôn
>
> Smith, Angela
>
> Smith, Geraldine
>
> Smith, Jacqui
>
> Smith, Andrew
>
> Soley, Clive
>
> Southworth, Helen
>
> Spellar, John
>
> Squire, Rachel
>
> Starkey, Dr Phyllis
>
> Steinberg, Gerry
>
> Stewart, David
>
> Stewart, Ian
>
> Stinchcombe, Paul
>
> Stoate, Dr Howard
>
> Straw, Jack
>
> Stuart, Ms Gisela
>
> Sutcliffe, Gerry
>
> Tami, Mark
>
> Taylor, Ms Dari
>
> Taylor, Ann
>
> Thomas, Gareth
>
> Thomas, Gareth R
>
> Timms, Stephen
>
> Todd, Mark
>
> Touhig, Don
>
> Turner, Dennis
>
> Turner, Neil
>
> Twigg, Derek
>
> Twigg, Stephen
>
> Vaz, Keith
>
> Ward, Ms Claire
>
> Watson, Tom
>
> Watts, Dave
>
> White, Brian
>
> Wicks, Malcolm
>
> Wills, Michael
>
> Wilson, Brian
>
> Winnick, David
>
> Winterton, Ms Rosie
>
> Woodward, Shaun
>
> Woolas, Phil
>
> --
> Michael Pugliese
>
> ___________________________________
> http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk