Re the material forwarded by Pugliese, we should note that the publication date was 1995. I'm no great expert on Afghanistan, but I certainly recall that in the popular press, the Taliban's advent was very sudden and unexpected. Prior to their capture of Kabul the popular Afgan narrative was one of intramural warlord/Rabbani combat. There was chaos and slaughter, with something like 30-40k people being killed between 1992 and 1996, if I recall. I think plans for a Central Asian caliphate were very much on the back burner at the time in question.
Note though that the State Department dude indeed comes off better, predicting that an Islamist opposition repatriated from Afghanistan would no doubt return radicalized.
Yahoo! Mail Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour: http://tour.mail.yahoo.com/mailtour.html