PARIS (by columnist Angela Charlton for RIA Novosti)
Ukraine has finally outgrown its decade-long, east-vs.-west identity crisis. Ukrainians are no longer wondering whether to turn to Moscow or Washington for prosperity.
Theyre wondering whether they need the rest of the world at all.
This quandary came close to all-out battle this weekend when internationalist President Viktor Yushchenko angrily suggested that his nationalist prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, quit. They later insisted that their unity remained uncompromised, but few appeared convinced.
The new identity crisis reflects Ukraines increased confidence after last Decembers voter-driven revolution, and has accomplished what diplomats couldnt: It has put Russia and the West on the same side of the Ukraine question, at least for now. Russian and European investors want access to Ukraines markets, even if it pits them against each other and Tymoshenkos populist policies have them rattled.
Russias reasons for concern are more obvious and immediate. Russian companies are in no mood to lose their significant holdings in Ukraine in an overly zealous re-privatization campaign. The two countries economies are so intertwined that any Ukrainian policy shift is bound to have repercussions on Russia. Saturdays showdown came at a meeting with Russian oil and gas executives over Ukraines extension of price caps on fuel for the sowing season. Russian suppliers, who had agreed to the initial caps but not to the Tymoshenko-driven extension, slashed supplies in protest.
Yushchenkos subsequent outburst at his premier buoyed Russian observers, and produced some of the most positive coverage of him in the Russian media in years.
Western investors, meanwhile, are waiting in the wings, and many are secretly rooting for the Russians or at least hoping for some sign of compromise signaling that its safe to enter the Ukrainian stage.
The U.S. government, which made Ukraine a symbol of the democratic regime change that President George Bush wants to see worldwide, is watching closely, too. If the new Ukraine turns out as stagnant or statist as the old one, Bush will need to cast about for another poster child. That would also discredit democratic movements elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, especially in Russia.
Yushchenkos problem is that Tymoshenkos policies are
highly popular among Ukrainians and his arent. With
parliamentary elections 10 months away, this is no trivial matter. Yushchenko won western backing last fall with pledges to clean up and step up privatizations and adopt European standards and values, with an eye to EU and NATO membership. Tymoshenko is answering to Ukraines factories and farmers, who say theyve had enough of outside interference.
The Ukrainians position is understandable. Centuries of dominance by outsiders (usually Russian) were followed by a decade of post-Soviet independence that left Ukraine desperate and dependent on western aid and Russian politics. But despite Tymoshenkos rhetoric, Ukraine cant climb out of this pit alone.
Russian observers draw parallels between todays Ukraine and Russias experiences in the 1990s, when Boris Yeltsin and his governments U.S. advisors launched unpopular economic reforms and faced off against a nationalist opposition that tapped voter frustrations. The result was years of turmoil: the bloody 1993 events at the White House, runaway inflation, rigged privatizations, and a president hopelessly alienated from his population.
Yushchenko is in a stronger starting position than Yeltsin was. Ukraine has already survived the toughest post-communist reforms, and is no stranger to inflation or funny privatizations. A careful study of Russias mistakes over the past decade could help Yushchenko recognize and defuse threats before they overtake him, and save his country from a similar struggle. The question is whether Yushchenko is too focused on a future in Europe to look for guidance in his eastern neighbors past.
Aside from the parliamentary elections, Yushchenkos other impending nightmare is constitutional reform. According to a deal struck during the Decembers election crisis, he pledged to relinquish many presidential powers in favor of more power for the premier. Even the deals European backers are getting nervous. Theyd much rather have Yushchenko at the helm than Tymoshenko, who is more unpredictable and less beholden to them.
Saturdays blowup may have been enough to scare Tymoshenko into compromises in the near term to keep her post. That would be good news for Yushchenko, caught between his prime minister and the rest of the world.
Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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