> But aren't you begging the question? You're assuming that the ruling
> class doesn't need to buy support because of the current state of
> popular non-mobilization. Should that change, everything would change.
Obviously. Nothing is certain but death and taxes. All I am arguing is that the elite has a greater capacity to manipulate the masses than they used to. But that does not give them 100% guarantee they will prevail.
Anything can tip the balance - from high gas prices, to a natural disaster, to a strategic terrorist attack, and to something that we cannot even foresee know. Empires do crumble, that is a historical fact.
But having said that, the elite has unprecedented level of organizational and technological resources allowing them a far greater level of surveillance, control and manipulation of public sentiments than even before. Also, technological advances allowed them to greatly reduce the need for manpower in the army without reducing effectiveness. As a result, they could employ a smaller mercenary force, which freed them from previous reliance on a conscript army to fight imperial wars. Since they do not have ask the population to make that kind of sacrifices, the population is much more docile and reluctant to oppose imperial adventures, and the elite is less obliged to make any expensive concessions (such as social programs).
That, of course, may change, but you have to admit that they have an unprecedented level of control.
Wojtek