One year before the 2006 midterm elections, Republicans are facing the most adverse political conditions of the 11 years since they vaulted to power in Congress in 1994. Powerful currents of voter unrest -- including unhappiness over the war in Iraq and dissatisfaction with the leadership of President Bush -- have undermined confidence in government and are stirring fears among GOP candidates of a backlash.
Interviews with voters, politicians and strategists in four battleground states, supplemented by a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, found significant discontent with the performance of both political parties. Frustration has not reached the level that existed before the 1994 earthquake, but many strategists say that if the public mood further darkens, Republican majorities in the House and Senate could be at risk.
One bright spot for the Republicans is the low regard in which many Americans hold the Democrats. The public sees the Democrats as disorganized, lacking in clear ideas or a positive alternative to the GOP agenda, and bereft of appealing leaders. In the Post-ABC News poll, voters gave Washington low grades without favor: Just 35 percent said they approved of the job Republicans in Congress were doing, while only 41 percent gave a positive rating to the Democrats.
In shopping malls, town hall meetings and on front porches, Americans expressed their concerns about the country's problems. The president still has strong supporters, but more common are questions about his and the country's priorities. A young mother in the Denver suburbs complained about the state of public education. An Ohio retiree complained about energy prices and said, "We're getting ripped off left and right by the oil companies." Immigration appears to be a volatile issue far from the U.S.-Mexico border. And looming over all else is the U.S. involvement in Iraq, which continues to gnaw at the country's psyche.
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Two-thirds of those surveyed by The Post and ABC News said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Asked whom they were likely to support in next year's House elections, 52 percent of registered voters said the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent said the Republican.
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Iraq a Key Concern
Pat Swensen, 61, stood on a chilly night with more than a dozen others at a busy intersection in Coon Rapids, Minn., and held a candle in honor and sorrow over the 2,000th American casualty in Iraq. Her niece's husband, an Army soldier, is preparing for a third deployment to Iraq.
"What's so difficult is there is no plan," said Swensen, an assistant registrar at a school in Ham Lake. "Nothing concrete that you can start measuring and say, 'We've done this, we've done that, the troops can start coming home.' How many times will my niece's husband have to go back?"
Swensen's question echoes across the country, among those who backed the war from the beginning and among those who opposed it.
The Post-ABC poll found that 68 percent of Americans say the country is off track, with only 30 percent saying things are going in the right direction. Among those who offered a pessimistic assessment, 30 percent cited one of a basket of economic issues: gas prices, jobs, incomes, inflation, the deficit. This downbeat mood has so far been impervious to strong economic news, including the recent announcement of a 3.8 percent annual growth rate in the third quarter.
"The big concern is the economy," said Nancy Emerick, a Toledo, Ohio, librarian. "There are still layoffs all the time in Toledo. [Auto parts maker] Dana, one of our biggest employers, is cutting jobs. My husband lost his job a couple years ago; he's working now, but he's not making what he did."
The president's Supreme Court nominations, for all the intensity they generate in Washington, do not appear to be significant issues with most voters. Nor did the controversy over the CIA leak case, including the recent indictment of Vice President Cheney's former chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, register significantly in voter interviews.
But anguish about Iraq comes through unmistakably in conversations at shopping malls, coffee shops and on doorsteps around the country. In the Post-ABC poll, 21 percent of those dissatisfied with the direction of the country cited Iraq as the principal reason.
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Negatives for Both Parties
Democrats see hopeful signs in an uneasy public mood. In the Post-ABC poll, Americans prefer the opposition party to congressional Republicans on every issue measured but one, including Iraq. The only exception was on terrorism; there the two parties are tied.
But those strengths are offset by two glaring weaknesses. A majority of Americans say the Democrats are not offering the country a clear direction that is different from the Republicans, and on the question of which party has stronger leaders, Republicans thump the Democrats by 51 percent to 35 percent.
"I just think they're sitting back waiting for something to happen," said Diane Mashman, a retired high school teacher who lives in the Denver suburbs and generally votes Democratic. "I don't know if they have anybody ready to run for president. They need to get their act together."
Ask people to name attractive Democratic leaders and they hesitate, pause or come up empty. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York enjoys clear support, but even several who said positive things about her questioned whether she could win the presidency, given the controversy that attaches to her history and name.
Republicans have their own divisions to deal with, from ethics scandals in Ohio to conflicts between conservatives and moderates. Prospective Republican candidates fear they will be caught in the fallout next year.
Full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/05/AR2005110501514_pf.html
Full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/05/AR2005110501514_pf.html