Warner's Star in Presidential Politics Rises on Virginia Vote By Heidi Przybyla
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Party has a model for success in presidential politics: a business-friendly Southern governor able to appeal to moderate and conservative voters who have been flocking to the Republicans.
The Nov. 8 elections may have provided a candidate in the flesh: former venture capitalist and soon-to-be ex-Virginia Governor Mark Warner.
Warner, who was ineligible to succeed himself under Virginia law, had long enough coattails to help elect his lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, as his successor. That puts another Democrat in the governor's seat of a state that has voted for the Republican candidate in 13 of the last 14 presidential elections.
The election shot Warner toward the top of the list of potential Democratic candidates in 2008, party strategists said.
``He was a strong possibility even before this,'' said former Representative Martin Frost, a Texan who headed recruitment efforts for the party's congressional candidates. ``This will encourage people to take a long look at him.''
Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, says the victory ``radically increases'' Warner's visibility. ``He looks like a kingmaker now,'' said Black, who wrote a book on the rise of the Republican Party in the South.
The 2008 election is three years away, and Warner, 50, will have to build significantly on his success if he is to compete against better-known politicians, chiefly New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who is most frequently mentioned as a favored candidate in polls of Democratic voters.
Bush Territory
Kaine and the Democrats scored their victory in a state that President George W. Bush won last year by 8 percentage points over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Warner now has an opportunity to begin showcasing himself to voters who have grown increasingly skeptical of Bush and his policies on Iraq, the economy and other issues.
Warner became a multi-millionaire after breaking into the budding cellular phone industry. Born in Indiana and raised in Connecticut, Warner attended George Washington University in Washington, D.C., where he graduated in 1977. He earned a degree from Harvard Law School in 1980, and a few years later began carving out a niche as a broker of cell phone franchises.
He helped start Columbia Capital Corp., a venture capital firm in the Washington suburbs of northern Virginia, and co- founded a company that became Nextel Communications Inc.
First Step
Warner's first step into politics was audacious. Having never held elected office, he challenged Senator John Warner, a Republican then seeking his fourth term. He lost. His next attempt was his successful governor race in 2001.
In office, Warner's legislative record straddled the political spectrum, earning him a ``centrist'' label, said Black. Among his key accomplishments was passage of a tax bill to improve the state's finances and fund education reforms.
Warner also vetoed a bill that would have banned certain late-term abortions. His communications director, Ellen Qualls, describes him as ``pro-choice with some restrictions,'' including support for parental notification rights.
Those actions are likely to earn him points in a Democratic primary. Others stances may be more problematic.
Warner is a friend of the National Rifle Association, appearing on the cover of the group's magazine last year. He signed laws enhancing the rights of gun owners, including one forbidding local governments from banning guns in certain places, such as government workplaces.
Democrats and Virginians
He's ``pro-death penalty,'' said Qualls, and has presided over executions as governor. He hasn't commuted any sentences of prisoners on Virginia's death row.
``Democratic primary voters in a presidential election are a lot more liberal than voters in Virginia,'' said Black. ``Some of the positions he's taken may not work.''
Then there's his position on taxes. A tax increase to balance the state's budget that he shepherded through Virginia's legislature will be the major hurdle if he gets through the Democratic primaries. His position will encourage Republicans to type-cast him as a tax-and-spend liberal, said Craig Brians, a political science professor who specializes in voting and elections at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia.
While Warner was able to convinced many Virginia Republicans to support the increase, muting the criticism, ``nationally, that's the first thing that's going to come out of the chute,'' Brians said.
Approval Rating
Warner, who got an 80 percent approval rating from Virginia voters in an October Washington Post poll, appeared in television ads and at rallies across the state and helped to raise money for Kaine, his 47-year-old deputy.
Behind the gubernatorial battle between Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore, Virginia's former attorney general, were Warner and U.S. Senator George Allen, a Republican and former governor who is also is among his party's potential 2008 presidential candidates.
Both men put their political capital on the line. ``Governor Warner really gambled everything,'' Brians said. ``He was the point man on Tim Kaine's campaign.'' Kaine tied himself as much as possible to Warner, referring to the ``Warner-Kaine'' administration, even though the two didn't run as a ticket in 2001.
Victory Party
Kaine supporters didn't waste time at his victory party in Richmond Tuesday night broadcasting what they think the election means.
``I'm looking forward to standing with you at your next victory party,'' Kaine told Warner as the crowd chanted ``08, 08, 08.''
Charles Goin, a 38-year-old engineer from Richmond who was waving a Warner '08 sign, said Warner could help Democrats reclaim the Oval office. ``You can't win the presidency without the South, and what's more southern than Virginia?'' he said.
Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, said while Warner is certainly someone who could appeal to southern voters, there are others, including Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, the 2004 vice presidential nominee.
``You don't have to win the South,'' he said. ``You just have to win a state in the South.''
Warner has been trying to expand his network of Democratic Party and national heavyweights. In May, Democratic elder statesman Vernon Jordan took Warner to the annual Bilderberg Conference, which brings together some of Europe's and North America's leading bankers, economists and government officials. ``He did very well,'' Jordan said.
Fourteen years ago Jordan took another young southern governor to his first Bilderberg Conference. His name was Bill Clinton.