> Chuck0 wrote:
>
>>I agree that the power elite wants a change. They see the handwriting on
>>the wall. The current regime has gone far beyond being friendly to the
>>ruling class, they are actively looting on behalf of their network of
>>buddies. Let's just say that the ruling class doesn't like the competition
>>and they probably are worried that the growing public distrust in
>>institutions may open the door for something more radical.
>
> Yeah, thinking more about Bartels' remarks, I'm wondering if he meant that
> a low approval rating meant a higher risk of popular resistance. America's
> in a bad mood, and I can't believe that that's good for political
> stability.
>
> Doug
---------------------------
Unfortunately, I think an increase in political resignation rather than
political resistance is more likely. This is because disgust with the Bush
administration by the Democratic ranks - who would form the main organized
body of any resistance - is being overtaken by depression and anger at the
party for refusing to give expression to the ballooning public disapproval
of the administration. There may still be more congressional Democrats
elected in 2006 because the Republicans will have their own problems
mobilizing their base, but I can't see the DP ranks throwing themselves into
the next presidential election with the same gusto after the bitter
disappointment of the Kerry campaign and the party's continuing refusal to
come out decisively against the Iraq occupation - no matter how deep their
residual hatred of the Bush administration.
This will especially be so if there is a McCain candidacy in 2008. In that case, you'd not only see widespread political abstention but also significant political crossover from Democratic supporters as well as independents to the Republicans. McCain has carefully fashioned a popular image of himself as an outsider and foe of the Beltway lobbies while remaining a loyal Republican party man -exactly the kind of candidate the ruling class would favour as representing a break in the public mind with the discredited Bush administration. I can't believe the ruling class at this stage sees "something more radical" on the horizon worth worrying about, certainly not by the standards of the 30's, and even if it did, McCain would still be the ideal man on a white horse for them in those circumstances as well. A McCain victory would hardly constitute even the kind of interparty regime change that marked the passage of power from Hoover to Roosevelt.
So while they are seriously fretting about Iraq, the twin deficits, energy supplies, and consumer debt, I don't think the current state of public opinion is a paramount concern for the political and economic decision makers just yet, although they almost certainly understand it as a potential source of political instability if the bottom should drop out of the economy. The only way they would contemplate regime change before the end of the administration's natural life is if Bush should, like Nixon, be implicated directly in a major scandal like that involving Veronica Plame, but since the current crop of congressional Democrats don't have the same stomach for a fight as Sam Ervin and his contemporaries did, I doubt even this as a possibiity.