>One can argue - albeit I ma not sure how convincingly, given Bush jr. - that
>in the first term popular dissatisfaction may hold presidential power in
>check due to re-election - bun in the second term? They can pretty much do
>what they want, or rather whatever is possible given the balance of power
>among other interest groups. That is why the presidential approval rating
>that Doug and others diligently cite never cease to amuse me - they carry
>less weight than, say, Miss America pageant.
You're forgetting Congress and the punditocracy. If a president's approval rating is around 40, his agenda will lose support of the legislature and "opinion leaders." I think that's what Bartels was getting after, though I do mean to do a follow-up.
Doug