[lbo-talk] One optimist's view of the economy

[Mark S]

Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>Not really. GDP growth in this expansion has averaged 3.3%, the slowest of 
>the 10 post-WW2 expansions, and just 2/3 of the 1945-1990 expansion average 
>(and 72% if you include the 1990s expansion). Employment growth has 
>averaged just 0.6% a year, compared with an average of 3.3%. Even the 
>latest year-to-year reading, 1.6%, is just half the average. Retail 
>excluding autos is 9.6% (he got one right), but including autos is 6.5%.

Nevertheless, many economists think that the Fed is tightening the benchmark 
interest rate in response to the strengthening labor market and rising 
wages.  Employment growth may be weak but it is apparently enough to provoke 
the Fed.

Jim Paulsen opined that oil will fall back to $40/barrel.  A savvy 
commentator in Grant's Interest Rate Observer recently predicted a 
climb-down to around $50/barrel.  He thought that the leveraged longs in oil 
futures could be in for trouble...

M.

_________________________________________________________________
Take advantage of powerful junk e-mail filters built on patented Microsoft® 
SmartScreen Technology. 
http://join.msn.com/?pgmarket=en-ca&page=byoa/prem&xAPID=1994&DI=1034&SU=http://hotmail.com/enca&HL=Market_MSNIS_Taglines 

  Start enjoying all the benefits of MSN® Premium right now and get the 
first two months FREE*.