Maria Gilmore
For what it's worth, I vividly remember an episode of PBS's "Nova" in the the last couple of years that was all about what a hit from a strong hurricane would do to New Orleans. Lots of interviews with lots of people who have been trying to plan for literally years for what was recognized by all as a totally catastrophic event should it happen; the city being literally in a bowl and what that means in the case of flooding, the disasterous consequences of levees giving way, it was all in it. Those people I am sure knew quite well that there would be no way to avoid extensive flooding, since billions of dollars had not been spent to reinforce the levees or come up with a way to pump trapped water out of the bowl. I'm sure they knew the only thing they could hope to do was to minimize loss of life, by getting as many people out of the city as possible. Amazingly, over
---------------------------------------------------- Yes, it was hardly a secret if a big 'cane came anywhere near N'Awlins. I found this July 2000 article from USA today with a quick google.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2000/wnoflood.htm
"A slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing within 20 or 30 miles of New Orleans would be devastating," Suhayda says.
The storm surge - water pushed into a mound by hurricane winds - would pour over the Pontchartrain levee and flood the city. A severe hurricane could push floodwaters inside the New Orleans bowl as high as 20-30 feet, covering most homes and the first three or four stories of buildings in the city, he says. "This brings a great risk of casualties."
In this type of scenario the metro area could be submerged for more than 10 weeks, says Walter S. Maestri, Director of Emergency Management for Jefferson Parish, which encompasses more than half of the city. In those 10 weeks, residents would need drinking water, food and a dry place to live.
Besides the major problems flooding would bring, there is also concern about a potentially explosive and deadly problem. Suhayda says flooding of the whole city could easily mix industrial and household chemicals into a toxic and volatile mix. Coupled with an estimated 100,000 tons of sediment, a cleanup could take several months. In the worst case scenario, the mix of toxic chemicals could make some areas of the city uninhabitable. "It could take several years for the city to recover fully, economically, from a strong hurricane," says Suhayda."
I suppose the only siginficant difference between this prognostication and what actually happened is that the storm surge didn't send water spilling over the levee; rather the levee broke and let the lake flood in - probably a worse long-term issue, but not as immediately deadly.