Monday, Apr 18, 2005
Nuclear power for the 21st century
M.R. Srinivasan
While India is determined to pursue nuclear energy development as a home-grown programme, it is keeping a door open for importing light water reactors using enriched uranium.
AN INTERNATIONAL conference on nuclear power for the 21st century, was held in Paris on March 21 and 22, and was attended by Ministers, high-ranking officials, and experts from 74 countries and 10 international organisations. It was organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency in cooperation with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and was hosted by the French Government. The aim was to discuss future polices and examine the potential of nuclear power to meet the century's energy needs while respecting social concerns and expectations. The Indian delegation was headed by Anil Kakodkar, Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission, and included this writer, and S. K. Jain, chairman and managing director, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited.
The opening addresses were by France's Minister for Industry, Patrick Devedjian, the IAEA Director General, Mohamed Elbaradei, and the OECD Secretary General, D. Johnston. The French Minister stated that nuclear power accounted for 78 per cent of France's total power production, the balance 12 per cent being hydro power. This programme has conferred energy independence to the extent of 50 per cent, up from 26 per cent in 1973. Additionally, nuclear power has allowed France to save 36 million tonnes of carbon emission, being about one third of the total carbon emission.
Mr. Elbaradei noted that China planned to raise its nuclear capacity from the current 6.5 gigawatt (a gigawatt is a thousand megawatt) to 36 GW by 2020. India plans to raise its nuclear capacity from the present 3GW ten fold by 2022 and a hundred-fold by the mid-21st century. Russia plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 22 GW at present to 40-45 GW by 2020.
This writer made a presentation about the power sector in India at the First Round Table discussion on "The world's resources and needs". The per capita electricity consumption in India of 600 kwh a year may be compared with the world average of 2,500 kwh and that of the OECD countries of 8,000 kwh. The number of Indian households having access to electricity is only 55 per cent. Of the 586,000 villages, about 120,000 are yet to be electrified. Non-commercial energy sources such as firewood, charcoal, agricultural and animal residues account for 29 per cent of the total energy consumed. Denial of organic manure to the land, loss of tree cover and unhygienic conditions in rural kitchens are some of the consequences. The only feasible alternative to these fuels is kerosene or LPG which will further push up the demand for hydrocarbons.
The Strategic Planning Group of the Department of Atomic Energy has made forecasts of the demands of primary energy and electricity in the next 50 years. It has used the growth of the Indian economy over the next half century as forecasted by various Indian agencies and some international experts from the International Monetary Fund and Goldman Sachs. India's population could rise to 1.5 billion by 2050. The DAE projections indicate that by 2050, the installed electrical capacity may increase to 1,250 GW to 1,350 GW and the annual generation may be above 8,000 Twh. This would still provide a per capita consumption of 5,000 kwh per capita per annum. After allowing for the contribution from coal (using clean coal technologies), gas, hydro, wind, solar and biomass, the nuclear electric capacity would have to be 275-300 GW. This is a growth of one hundred times of the present nuclear capacity. At first glance this may appear a tall order. But our total electric capacity went up from some 2 GW in 1950 to 100 GW in 2000, a 50-fold growth. To achieve the required growth of nuclear power, we need to add some six GW nuclear plants every year for the next 50 years. This is certainly doable when we recall that we have commissioned four reactors (although of a small size) in a year in recent years and currently nine reactors are under construction or are to be commissioned. The dependence on nuclear energy may have to be increased as hydrogen may have to be produced in large quantities to replace hydrocarbons in the transport sector. Also, large quantities of desalinated water will require to be produced for which the energy input may well be nuclear.
Many challenges
Dr. Kakodkar, in the country presentation, discussed at length the challenges in realising the large-scale growth in nuclear energy in the country in the next 50 years. The hitherto identified natural uranium resources can support a rather modest 10 GW of installed capacity when using the Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors. A recent landmark was the criticality attained at Tarapur Unit IV on March 6, 2005; this unit rated at 540 MW is the largest nuclear power unit (and indeed the biggest power unit of any kind) to be commissioned in India. The PHWR programme, comprising the units in operation and those under construction, is almost at the halfway mark. The Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), under construction at Kalpakkam, is the first commercial scale fast reactor India is building. Large-scale utilisation of nuclear energy in the country depends on harnessing the fast reactor technology. Utilising the energy potential of uranium 238 (a fertile material, in nuclear parla nce) would support 530 GW for 100 years. When thorium (also a fertile material) is used as a source of energy, the potential of India's thorium resources is equivalent to 150,000 GW yr (or say a capacity of 1500 GW for 100 years).
It is because of the large energy potential of thorium that India has embarked on a large programme for thorium utilisation. An important step in this effort is the rapid construction of a series of fast reactors using the plutonium in the spent fuel of the first stage PHWRs. Research and development are under way to use metallic fuel in fast reactors, in place of the oxide fuel to used in the PFBR, which promises to breed new nuclear fuel faster.
Another method of using thorium as an energy source is the development of Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) where a sub-critical nuclear reactor is used to generate power. This requires development of high-energy particle accelerators producing high current proton beams. The protons on impacting with a target material such as bismuth produce neutrons that can support nuclear fission in a sub-critical mode.
As a contribution to the national hydrogen programme, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre is developing a High Temperature Reactor. Initially the intention is to build a small size version, the Compact High Temperature Reactor, to develop the relevant technologies. The Institute for Plasma Research, under the DAE, is leading work on developing a fusion-based system for producing energy.
There are suggestions that India join international efforts to develop thermo nuclear reactors. Right now Japan and France are competing to host the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), which has U.S.A, Russia, European Union, Japan, China and South Korea as sponsors. India could join as a sponsor in this programme and take up some parts of the developmental activities.
While India is determined to pursue nuclear energy development as a home-grown programme, it is keeping a door open for importing light water reactors using enriched uranium. Tarapur Units 1 and 2 are Boiling Water Reactors imported from the U.S.; they operate safely and reliably even after 35 years and produce the cheapest non hydro electric power. Two Pressurised Water Reactors (called VVER) of 1000 MW are under construction at Koodankulam in cooperation with Russia. Both these reactor installations are under facility specific safeguards of the IAEA.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group, a club of countries having the ability to export nuclear power units or parts thereof, has mutually agreed not to export reactors to countries which have not signed the NPT. India has not signed the NPT as it is a discriminatory treaty and has developed comprehensive nuclear capabilities, including weapon capability, on its own as a national endeavour. It has also had an impeccable record as a country that has been responsible and not assisted or sponsored nuclear proliferation. Yet the countries that are keen on exporting reactors to India, Russia and France, are being restrained in doing so on grounds of non-proliferation. China, a declared weapons power, imports reactors from France, Canada and Russia.
The U.S. spares no effort in convincing itself that Pakistan did not indulge in clandestine nuclear trade in spite of A.Q. Qadeer Khan's heavy footprints in North Korea, Libya and Iran. It is also seeking to block the gas pipeline across Pakistan to bring gas from Iran to India. What is offered in exchange to India is a `dialogue on energy'. India is determined to proceed with the nuclear programme on its own and it will be unfortunate if India's readiness to open its doors for import of nuclear power units is thwarted because of the compulsions of an outmoded nuclear theology.
(Dr. Srinivasan is a former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission.)
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