> Generally the Minshuto is not held as a credible opposition since
> it is
> well known as a recomposition of traditional political elements,
> mostly
> out of the "old" LDP.
>
There was a funny comment by Okada after the LPD kicked the old guard out and they created their own parties: "We had LDP A, now we have LPD B and LPD C" forgetting that he (and all the faction that came with the merging of Jiyuto) originally were themselves a LPD A'...
I think the voters, if not conscious of that, at least understand that Okada's Minshuto is not exactly what they have in mind to replace LPD.
> Why buy the copy when you can have the real
> thing? The Minshuto has had years to establish that credibility,
> but as
> this election shows, the mass political terrain is too unstable and
> only
> grows more volatile.
>
If I am not wrong, the number of votes that went to Minshuto actually increased compared to the last election, but Jiminto also benefited from a relatively higher participation and mechanically won more seats. But the undecided may swing the other way in 2 years from now for the upper house election.
> The interesting question now is, can the Koizumi-led faction
> consolidate
> anthing out of this volatility? An _open_ question still.
>
Well, it can't be worse than having _less_ seats. The new candidates have been selected on one criteria: loyalty to the leader. How long will it take until they are familiar enough with the Diet to make their own minds ?
> Koizumi has announced that he will retire form the Prime Ministership
> next Sept. Much of this result rides on Koizumi's personal
> charisma and
> political acumem (I had said before that Koizumi is one of the
> sharpest
> of the reactionary politicians on the world scene, sharper that Rove,
> much less Blair.
>
> Who will hold it together afterwards?
>
They'd better ask him to keep his seat for a little longer, otherwise chances that all this splits into small factions are high.
> Yes, there is the potential for a real recovery and upswing in the
> business cycle right now. But they'll have to stay on good terms with
> China more than the US, from now on, if they want to keep it that way.
> (Japan's trade with China now exceeds that with the US, for the first
> time) But that is the exact opposite of the Koizumi faction's
> political
> orientation. Problem.
>
It is very possible that all the noise about China and Korea was made to test the opinion and see what stance to adopt in case an election was called. Also, from what I read in Le Monde the other day (a portrait of Koizumi by Philippe Pons) Koizumi does not depend much on his political faction. He is much freer than other primes have been in the past. And now that he's been "re-elected" he has no reason to act tough on China since it also goes opposite of the business interests he also promotes.
> http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200509120229.html
>
(The link does not seem to be valid anymore.)
> No, I think Koizumi faction will not dump Komeito, because in
> non-Komeito districts Soka Gakkai is commanded to vote for the LDP.
>
You are absolutely right. But it has not always been like this.
> Nobody in the Japanese ruling class is in the habit of paying any
> attention to "the will of the people". The commentators are horrified
> that Koizumi faction may run roughshod over _their_ special interests.
>
And talking about "the will of the people" is their way to send the message to Koizumi I suppose.
> I agree with the last sentence. Few Japanese undersood Koizumi's
> obsession with postal bank privatization, because the real reason
> could
> never be explained in public: That what is likely the largest single
>
I find it surprising that even JPC does not seem to mention that.
JC Helary