[lbo-talk] German election: the markets won't like this

Chuck lbo at hvgreens.org
Sun Sep 18 13:45:42 PDT 2005


All,

Here are the latest results from Germany as reported by Deutshe Welle:

CDU: 35.3

SPD: 34.1

FDP: 10.1

Greens: 8.1

Left Party: 8.5

The Bundestag seating division is:

CDU: 220

SPD: 212

FDP: 63

Greens: 50

Left: 53

598 Bundestag seats means 300 seats are needed to form a coalition. The reasonable theoritical combinations that get you there are:

1) CDU, SPD (432) <== the "Grand Coalition" for the lovers of the WTO.

2) CDU,FDP,Greens (333) <== Only if the Greens can't wait to be known by the color of American money!

3) CDU,FDP,Left (336) <== Can you spell "DYSFUNCTIONAL"!

4) SPD,FDP,Greens (325) <== The FDP has ruled out any coalition with the SPD

5) SPD,Greens,Left (315)<== Probably the next most likely possibility after a Grand Coalition.

I'd say the chances of the Grand Coalition look really good since the alternative is a much more left-leaning Germany in direct conflict with the US. I doubt German voters have the stomach to take on the US agenda with all that would mean. I guess it's a good day for the WTO and the New World Order.

Chuck

----- Original Message ----- From: "Marvin Gandall" <marvgandall at videotron.ca> To: "LBO-Talk" <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Sent: Sunday, September 18, 2005 3:44 PM Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] German election: the markets won't like this


> Jim Famelant wrote:
>
>> Any chance that Schroeder or the other SPD leaders
>> could come under pressure from the Party's base
>> to do a coalition with the Left party rather than
>> a grand coalition with the CDU?
> -------------------------
> Maybe, and that would be good, but I doubt it.
>
> Why is a broad left coalition unlikely? Because Schroeder and the SPD
> leaders are closer to Merkel and the CDU than they are to Lafontaine and
> Gysi's Left Party.
>
> The SPD and CDU both favour the continuation of "structural reforms"
> which
> would scale back Germany's health, pension, unemployment, and welfare
> benefits, reduce corporate taxes and regulation, and weaken the unions and
> collective bargaining. They differ in how much the safety nut should be
> unravelled, but both parties have this as their goal. The social
> democrats,
> in fact, began implementing this program while in office.
>
> That's what led Lafontaine and the Social Democrats' left wing to bolt the
> SPD and to form the Left Party in alliance with Gysi's Linkspartie, which
> evolved from the old East German CP. The LP leaders have deep-seated
> differences with the SPD agenda, and one or the other party would have to
> effectively abandon their own program in order to go into coalition.
>
> Shroeder and Merkel, not surprisingly, tried to demonstrate they were very
> different from each other in their appeals to voters, but on the
> essentials,
> there seems to be enough agreement between them to force them into a
> "grand
> coalition" which could govern along the lines mentioned above. It happened
> before, in the 60s, when Willi Brandt, I think, was head of the SPD.
>
>
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>



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