Options narrow for Nepal's isolated monarch
Thu 15 Sep 2005
By Simon Denyer and Gopal Sharma
NEW DELHI/KATHMANDU, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Pressure is mounting on Nepal's King Gyanendra to restore democracy after he seized power earlier this year, but there is no sign yet of the monarch relenting despite his increasing isolation, analysts say.
The king's traditional supporters are beginning to abandon him, while the country's main political parties are stepping up public protests and talking openly about establishing a republic.
Analysts are wondering if this is the beginning of the end for Nepal's monarchy as a political force.
"He has two choices," said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Nepali magazine, Samay. "One, come to an understanding with political parties accepting the role of a constitutional monarch.
"Two, go totally repressive as a dictator and risk the monarchy's future in the long run."
Pitched battles between pro-democracy protesters and police have erupted almost daily since political parties stepped up protests this month. Dozens of people have been wounded and hundreds detained but later freed.
"The monarchy is losing its support among the people," said Krishna Pahadi, a leading human rights activist.
At Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, Professor S.D. Muni says the king's decision to sack his own government and assume the reins of power would backfire in the long run, even though the army appear to be backing him for the time being.
Muni, like Ghimire, said the king risked losing everything if he took the path of confrontation and unleashed a more brutal crackdown on protesters and critics. It would be better to step back and hand power back to politicians while there is still time, he said.
"The monarchy will never be accepted as an active governing institution," Muni said. "His only choice is a ceremonial monarchy -- or no monarchy at all."
PATIENCE
King Gyanendra declared a state of emergency on Feb. 1, sacking the government, jailing politicians and suspending civil liberties. He now rules through an unelected council of 24 loyalist ministers.
He said the moves were essential to quell a Maoist revolt which has claimed more than 12,500 lives since 1996.
The Maoists want to overthrow his rule and turn Nepal into a communist state. The revolt has displaced tens of thousands of people and brought further misery to one of the world's poorest countries wedged between China and India.
"If the conflict is not resolved quickly there will be more violence, more repression by the government, and more bloodshed," said Padma Ratna Tuladhar, who helped facilitate failed peace talks between the government and rebels in 2001 and 2003.
The king admits the nation is in difficulty and has promised to restore democracy within three years -- but he seems to be in no rush to start the process.
"The people (have) taught me to be patient," he said in a recent interview with state television.
But the patience of his people and of the international community may be running out. "We have seen little movement toward the government's own stated goal of multiparty democracy," U.S. Ambassador James Moriarty said recently.
This month, the largest political party, the Nepali Congress, abandoned its 60-year-old written commitment to uphold the monarchy -- a big step in a country where the king is considered by many as an incarnation of Hindu god Vishnu.
The second biggest party, the Communist Unified Marxzist-Leninists, has begun campaigning openly for a republic. But staunch royalists say parties should simply trust the king.
"His Majesty the king is committed to multi-party deomcracy," said Yagya Prasad Acharya, a member of the king's privy council. "There is no reason why anyone should raise doubts about this."
Faced with growing isolation abroad, King Gyanendra also called off a plan to attend the U.N. General Assembly this month.
"By cancelling his U.N. trip the king has given a clear message that he cannot justify his move in any international forum," said Ghimire.
Earlier this month the Maoists, who control large swathes of the countryside, surprised many people by declaring a unilateral ceasefire. Analysts said it was part of their efforts to reach out to political parties to form a united front against the king.
So far the main political parties have seemed very reluctant to take up the Maoist offer of talks, wary of associating themselves with rebels who have few friends abroad and are accused of killing innocent civilians at home.
The government says it cannot trust the Maoists to keep the ceasefire but diplomats say the king should seize the opportunity it presented and explore avenues for peace.
Locals say there has to be a way out of the chaos soon.
"If this situation continues for another three or four years Nepal will be like Somalia," said 23-year-old taxi driver Rajan Gautam. "There will be no food to eat and more deaths."
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