[lbo-talk] On poker [was: DC: Costs of big marches

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

Travis:
> Just to stick with the poker analogy.  Probability is only part of the
game.
> There is also the bluff.  Good poker players dont win simply because they
are
> calculating the probabilities of getting the cards they need on the flop.
They
> also win because they make guesses about the strength of their opponents
hand
> and guesses about their ability to convince other players about the
strength of
> their own hand.  A strict probability approach (vis-a-vis ones own hand)
will
> have you folding all night long and yes you are sure to lose less money
but you
> are sure to go home with less than you bought in for.

Travis, you are missing one important element.  You can bluff in poker - I
was waiting for someone bringing that subject up - as long as all players
are playing by the rules of the game.  Your bluffing becomes completely
useless if the other player will pull a gun on you - i.e. is in the position
of changing the rules in the middle of the game.

That is my problem with idealists of all stripes - they labor mightily to
establish or discover the rules of the games and then they firmly believe
that this or that will happen because the rules say so.  This kind of
idealism, or perhaps fundamentalism - a belief that scriptures i.e. a
products of the human mind - weigh more than material reality is a trait
that unites people across political divisions - right wing Christians, left
wing activists or even 'systems' theorists, and liberal constitutionalists
and rulers-of-law.  

I think this kind of mind set confuses "may" with "can" - which af6ter all
mean two very different thing sin the English language.  Things happen or do
not mostly because people can or cannot do them not because the may or may
not.  There is a saying in the old country that law (or rules in general) is
like a fence - lions jump over it, snakes crawl under it, only sheep are
stopped by it.  

That is a good thing to remember next time you are playing poker or showing
the threatening gestures to people with power - make sure that the rules of
the game will not change when you bluff, or otherwise be prepared to fight
with something more substantial than a piece of paper.


> Like his buddies we should stop playing
> with him.

Is there a commissar in your shoes, or you are just happy to use your delete
button?

Wojtek