fine interview doug, nice to hear you mention stonecash book (although bartels didn't really address question you posed to him about it), are you familiar with bartels' study of negative electoral impact on people in office, he essentially gave you opportunity to query him about it when he mentioned hurricane and its possible effect on remainder of bush's second term...
kinda surprised i haven't seen press interviews with either bartels - or co-author, another mainstream poli sci guy chris achen - given their piece from several years ago entitled 'blind retrospection: electoral responses to drought, flu, and shark attacks', b&a analyze negative impact 'natural disasters' have on people/parties in office at next election, they show, for example, that 1916 shark attacks (which inspired peter benchley's novel 'jaws') along new jersey beaches resulted in 10% decline from 1912 in beach town votes for woodrow wilson...
achen and bartels estimate that 2.8 million people voted against al gore in 2000 because their states were 'too dry' or 'too wet' as a consequence of that year's weather patterns, achen and bartels think that these voters cost gore seven states, any one of which would have given him the election...
a&b's study is all the more interesting in light of former fema director brown approving $30M - *prior to nov election* - in emergency funds to floridians not even affected by last year's hurricanes... michael hoover
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