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<DIV>Mark S states: " I thought that the pre-hurricane U.S. economy was
relatively solid. <BR>Forecasts for real GDP growth are in the 3.5% range
for 2005 and 3% for <BR>2006. Employment data seem to be improving.
A banker at a recent luncheon <BR>indicated that Finance is fairly happy with
the situation right now. <BR>Getting back to the original question, it
remains to be seen how serious the <BR>gas price shock will be to real
growth."</DIV>
<DIV>Comment: Boy you could make a lot of money cheerleading for CNN or Business
Week.The thing to do is,in addition to consider that these figurer's are
politically constructed, to ask :well how did the economy supposedly
got there? By virtue of what? Which sectors actually grew, where is new
employment coming from?. etc.,If you do this you easily see that this
"growth" does not com from the real engine of net investment additions
that expand productive capacity, employment and income. So where does it come
from? From consumption growth. And how is his possible? Because of the growth of
consumer's debt to galactic proportion, especially via he housing bubble and low
interest rates which in turn comes courtesy the Asians' CBs massive buying
of UST bonds. What about employment? If you examine the data, you'll find out
most of the anemic growth in jobs resides in the low wage retail sector,
government and construction, which is fueled by a transitory housing
bubble.</DIV>
<DIV>Your banker friends are happy? Of course! Finance is the only growth
industry in the US, but it depends on a shrinking real economy which keeps
increasing the outsourcing of productive platforms to SEA and China. Also make
no mistake, 1-the the US government and Trade deficits, both approaching a
trillion dollars guarantee a future of high interest rates and then those
bankers won't be so happy, and 2 - even the most hysterical cheerleader can't
avoid facing the somber fact that increasing oil prices (an of other
commodities} will deliver a severe surge in inflation.</DIV>
<DIV>Cristobal senior</DIV></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>