``..that's where the leak of the tactical nuke story has a role to play: selling sanctions.
Those who aren't sold on sanctions yet are Moscow and Beijing. So, I take it that they are the ones who are the target audience of the leak..'' Yoshie
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I wrote that last part on sanctions as I was leaving my place to get back to work, so I didn't think it through very well.
I can't reason any of this out, but I still don't see how `leaking' a nuke strike on Iran pushes the Russians and Chinese to support sanctions.
What's the strategy for leaking a US nuke strike which just isolates the US to even greater effect? I mean how does this leak leverage Russian and Chinese support in the security council?
Okay, maybe you're suggesting that the US is playing a lesser of two evils game, where the Russians and Chinese pick sanctions because they want to avoid a unilateral US nuke strike?
Wojtek wants to know: ``what are the sanctions that would be acceptable in this situation?''
I wasn't thinking. You're right there is no such thing as an acceptable sanction. Somewhere in my vague and hurried imagination I was thinking of completely disproportionate sanctions like those used on Iraq: boycott all trade except oil and food, mandatory and open ended UN inspections, and promote an endless series of UN resolutions on non-compliance that build the case for a bombing campaign to subdue a rogue state. Same old story.
On the other hand, it could be argued such UN reprisals would probably be vetoed and would provide cover for the US to claim the UN was ineffective and more must be done, i.e. nuke'm.
In either scenario I don't see how Hersh's nuke story promotes US leverage on Russia and China. Why on earth would their diplomatic elite quiver at a US threat to nuke Iran, and vote in the security council against their own interests with Iran? It doesn't make sense. Russia and China have no interest in what Iran does with domestic nuclear fuel development, except to sell Iran expensive high tech equipment that has a very limited market.
Hey, I am just guessing. But it seems to me it is still simpler to assume the US military and DOD planners were exposed by the Hersh article and they are covering their ass with a spin that pretends these were `leaks' to promote some obscure diplomatic end.
CG