Daily Star (Beiruit) - April 15, 2006 On Iran, Arab heads should come out of the sand
By Khalid Hroub
The United States is uncertain as to how to react against a defiant Iran on the nuclear issue, especially after Tehran reported success this week in enriching uranium. However, the U.S. is willing to discuss Iraq with the Iranians. Similar confusion about Iran also prevails in the Arab world; but still, the Arab states are not seriously talking to Iran.
Iran's growing regional power is understandably worrisome to many Arab regimes, especially those in the Gulf. The Iranians are no less suspicious of the attitude many Arab states have toward their interests. With the potential for military <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#> confrontation increasing, the position of the Arabs is precarious at best. They would be caught in the crossfire <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#>, facing enormous pressure from the U.S. to support measures against Iran.
Given the current volatility, the proper Arab response to Iran's rising influence should be to conduct frank discussions on all issues that could give rise to mutual friction, thus avoiding even the hint of siding <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#> with the U.S. and the West. It is ironic that the Americans can act realistically and proactively with Iran while the Arabs bury their head in the sand.
To start with, Iran is shaping a new regional reality: it holds strong cards <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#> in Iraq; it supports Syria increasingly and unreservedly; it supports Hizbullah in Lebanon against all odds; it publicly backs Hamas in Palestine. Over and above this, Iran is unabashedly challenging the Western order on the nuclear issue. It is insisting that it has a right to produce nuclear power (it hasn't admitted this is for military purposes, though it very likely is), dismissing international opprobrium.
Economically, as a major player in the international oil market, Iran holds a card in being able to influence energy <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#> prices. In fact, Iran could inflict considerable damage on Western economies if it decided to get involved in the game <http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID#750&cat_ID=5#> of raising oil prices.
Iran's emergence is the fruit of an astonishing paradox. This was expressed with unusual frankness by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal at the Council on Foreign Relations in September 2005. He observed that Iran had reaped the benefits of the American war in Iraq, although it was and remains the main U.S. enemy in the region. Tehran knows now is the moment to increase its strategic leverage. The U.S., the United Kingdom and even Israel are at a loss as to how to respond to Iranian ambitions. Anything they do might turn Iraq upside down should a confrontation with Iran develop violently. This could foil the U.S. master plan, not only in Iraq, but throughout the region as well.
At the popular level in the region, Iran's radical discourse, unfolding against a background of increasingly hostile feelings toward American and Western policies in the region, is seen as an assertive response to American and Western arrogance. Given the accumulation of despair and anger, Arab and Islamic public opinion is unwilling to consider that extremist discourse or behavior only leads to catastrophe, as was proven in the cases of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. As long as rage continues to control the public's mood, populist discourse will be received with enthusiasm by the angry majority.
What worries Arab states even more, is that Iran is not viewed in the region as an ordinary state. Its aspirations and religious discourse are seen by neighboring Arab regimes to be trespassing on their borders, and influencing Arab Shiites. Last week, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was blunt, if foolishly provocative, when he said that Arab Shiites gave more allegiance to Iran than to their own countries. In this he spoke for many Gulf and Lebanese politicians. They all fear that Iran is capable of mobilizing local Shiites against their regimes.
There are pending issues between Iran and the Arab states that must be settled. There is suspicion, even fear, hanging over the Gulf Cooperation Council states regarding Iran's military and strategic aspirations. Arabs complain about Iranian interference in their internal affairs, from Iraq and Lebanon to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The issue of the three United Arab Emirates islands that Iran still occupies stands out as a major dispute.
To Iranian eyes, on the other hand, the Arab outlook is seen as slipping toward favoritism for Western - especially American - policies. In fact, Arab interests are based on a totally different logic than these. Instead of evading the urgent matter of formulating a healthy relationship with Iran, the Arab states must open a dialogue with Tehran not only at the level of states, but at a collective level as well.
Regional and Gulf security is impossible without Iranian involvement. The Arabs and Iranians must place their mutual suspicions on the table, aim for agreements that rationalize Arab-Iranian competition and do this within a non-confrontational framework. Negotiations and understandings with Iran on regional security are more urgent than pursuing utopian projects with the NATO alliance. They are also more urgent than creating a security umbrella from which a neighboring country is excluded.
In the foreseeable future, the need for a clearer Arab position vis-a-vis Iran will be even more pressing than before. Sooner than we think there may be an international, Western-driven effort to besiege Iran and cut it down to size. Military action cannot be ruled out.
If the Arabs ally themselves with the U.S. against Iran they will be endangering their own interests and regional stability. Iranian political and spiritual leaders believe Iran is the natural source of authority for the region's Shiites, including Arab Shiites. However, many Arab Shiites reject Iranian political, as opposed to spiritual, authority. That won't prevent Iran from using the Shiite card in the event Arab states support American hostilities against Iran. True regional chaos is yet to come, but the Arabs should take preventive measures before it is too late.
/*Khaled Hroub* is director of the Cambridge Arab Media Project at Cambridge University in the United Kingdom. He wrote this commentary for *THE DAILY STAR.*/