[lbo-talk] Welcome to my parlor, says the Hezbollah spider to the Israeli fly.

Dwayne Monroe idoru345 at yahoo.com
Tue Aug 1 08:26:08 PDT 2006


Victor:


>From the point of view of military and civilian losses
in life and property, Hezbollah has fared poorly. The ground forces committed by Israel have been small, and they've had to suffer losses in learning the appropriate methods for managing military interaction with Hezbollah units [An orderly tactical retreat is usually the sign of a well trained, professional force]. Still, Israel's military potential relative to that of Hezbollah is large, and the learning curve of the Israeli army has in the past been very steep so a momentary setback under current conditions is hardly the basis for a victory party. Moreover, while I have considerable respect for the professionalism of Hezbollah's Iranian advisors, I doubt that even they can develop an effective responseto a massive Israeli ground strike by what is essentially a specialised militia of infrantry and artillery. The fate of the PLO forces faced with the assembled might of the Israeli military machine in 1982, does not bode well for Hezbollah's fortunes in a full-scale ground war.

................................

You make several excellent points but there is, in my view, one question that towers above all others:

Will Israel's offensive eliminate resistance? I assume this is Tel Aviv's goal; can they succeed (in the 'Roman peace' sense) by destroying southern Lebanon?

For me, the issue isn't whether or not Hezbollah can fight set-piece or 4GW style battles (or any variation thereof) - of course the Israelis enjoy a materiel advantage so a guerrilla or light infantry force's best option in the face of the sort of metal storm the IDF can conjure is to stage a series of orderly retreats (unless there are strategic considerations I'm unaware of - which is, of course, a certainty).

What whirlwinds, I wonder, will be reaped from Israel's actions?

.d.

The most important isotope of plutonium is 239Pu, with a half-life of 24,110 years.

...................... http://monroelab.net/blog/



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