>From the point of view of military and civilian losses
in life and property, Hezbollah has fared poorly. The
ground forces committed by Israel have been small, and
they've had to suffer losses in learning the
appropriate methods for managing military interaction
with Hezbollah units [An orderly tactical retreat is
usually the sign of a well trained, professional
force]. Still, Israel's military potential relative
to that of Hezbollah is large, and the learning curve
of the Israeli army has in the past been very steep so
a momentary setback under current conditions is hardly
the basis for a victory party. Moreover, while I have
considerable respect for the professionalism of
Hezbollah's Iranian advisors, I doubt that even they
can develop an effective responseto a massive Israeli
ground strike by what is essentially a specialised
militia of infrantry and artillery. The fate of the
PLO forces faced with the assembled might of the
Israeli military machine in 1982, does not bode well
for Hezbollah's fortunes in a full-scale ground war.
................................
You make several excellent points but there is, in my view, one question that towers above all others:
Will Israel's offensive eliminate resistance? I assume this is Tel Aviv's goal; can they succeed (in the 'Roman peace' sense) by destroying southern Lebanon?
For me, the issue isn't whether or not Hezbollah can fight set-piece or 4GW style battles (or any variation thereof) - of course the Israelis enjoy a materiel advantage so a guerrilla or light infantry force's best option in the face of the sort of metal storm the IDF can conjure is to stage a series of orderly retreats (unless there are strategic considerations I'm unaware of - which is, of course, a certainty).
What whirlwinds, I wonder, will be reaped from Israel's actions?
.d.
The most important isotope of plutonium is 239Pu, with a half-life of 24,110 years.
...................... http://monroelab.net/blog/