Guerrilla war beckons as Israel eyes land offensive http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-08-01T121808Z_01_L01473104_RTRUKOT_0_TEXT0.xml&src=080106_0851_TOPSTORY_fighting_escalates
Tue Aug 1, 2006
By Luke Baker - Analysis
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel's decision to launch a broader ground offensive in Lebanon may succeed in driving Hizbollah back and may destroy more of its capability, but it also risks drawing Israel into a costly guerrilla war.
With relatively little to show from three weeks of fighting so far, it's also unclear how much Israel will be able to achieve in the two-week window it says it needs to drive Hizbollah from its mountain strongholds in southern Lebanon.
Israel called up three reserve divisions ahead of Monday's move to broaden the offensive, indicating that up to 20,000 troops could take part in the expanded operation, analysts say.
They'll be confronting an estimated 2,000-3,000 well-armed and trained Hizbollah fighters who have shown themselves to be an organised force capable of springing surprises and inflicting casualties on Israel's forces over the past 21 days.
Thirty-three Israeli soldiers have died in the fighting so far, including eight killed in a Hizbollah ambush in the town of Bint Jbeil last week. Arabic media reported that three more were killed in clashes west of Bint Jbeil on Tuesday.
"It's beginning to look like a Catch-22 for Israel," said Rosemary Hollis, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, a British think-tank.
"They haven't been able to clear Hizbollah out of their foxholes on the border area with fire power alone, so now they are going in on the ground with hand-to-hand combat which will suit guerrilla fighters," she said. "Whatever happens Hizbollah will claim victory."
HIGH STAKES, HIGH TOLL
Israeli political sources say the operation is intended to secure a 6-7 km (4 mile) swathe of southern Lebanon. But they say planners have ruled out moving north to the Litani River, 20 km inside the country and previously mentioned as a target.
The goal, military experts say, is not only to destroy as much of Hizbollah as possible, driving them north and preventing them from firing rockets into Israel, but also to create a sense of public success that has been sorely lacking so far.
There is also the need for Israel to take and hold Lebanese ground on its terms and in the shortest time possible ahead of any U.N. Security Council agreement on a ceasefire that may or may not leave Israel in the dominant position.
"The army needs to be able to show Hizbollah that if you mess with Israel, this is what you get," said Uri Dromi, a former Israeli air force officer who is now the director of international outreach for the Israeli Democracy Institute.
"Plus, we need to be in there so that when someone -- America -- says 'enough is enough', we can say 'well if you want us out, then Hizbollah has to go as well'. It puts Israel in a better bargaining position," he said.
However, such tactical objectives don't come cheap. Israeli troops have so far pushed no more than 4 or 5 km into one small area of Lebanon -- not entirely across the 70-km wide border -- and have already taken substantial losses.
A village-to-village, town-to-town campaign across the width of the border and up into Lebanon's rugged hills, battling guerrillas all the way, will cost time and lives.
While not directly comparable, even the U.S. military with its 135,000 troops in Iraq has found it next to impossible to quell a determined insurgency there. Hizbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, is as well armed as any Iraqi militant force.
That said, analysts believe sentiment in Israel is changing. Whereas once any loss of military lives was insupportable for the public, now there is more readiness to sustain casualties.
"This is existential for Israel, they can't lose this one," said Hollis. "Therefore, there isn't a limit to how much loss they can sustain. In terms of Israel's place in the region, its future is on the line in this conflict."
For Dromi, it's also tied to the success of a campaign that began with the capture of two soldiers by Hizbollah.
"It's a feeling of total war now, so as long as people see the goals being achieved, they can bare a lot of casualties."
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