[lbo-talk] Lebanon: Why Israel is Winning

mike larkin mike_larkin2001 at yahoo.com
Tue Aug 1 11:41:02 PDT 2006


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH02Ak03.html

"....But given Israel's unwillingness to halt the war even for 48 hours, after the massacre of civilians in Qana giving rise to the United States' premature statement that Israel had consented to the temporary halt, clearly shows Israel's determination to prevent even a tiny yet tangible step toward this scenario. It is pushing instead for a clear and unambiguous victory aimed at Hezbollah's military disintegration.

While most likely Israel will not get its ultimate wish granted, and will ultimately have to settle with a much-diminished Hezbollah at the end of the military campaign, nonetheless its current efforts are dealing a huge blow to an important edifice of Iran's deterrent strategy.

Only by resorting to an inverse logic can we possibly consider as a gain what is clearly a net loss for Iran, seeing how Iran will be prevented in the future from counting on Hezbollah to strike back at Israel in the aftermath of a showdown with either Israel or the United States.

It is, therefore, hardly surprising that there are strong voices of concern within Iran's ruling establishment, some claiming the war in Lebanon as a victory for Israel, with serious negative ramifications for Iran's "national security and even her territorial sovereignty", to quote Ali Montaseri, an Iranian penning in Baztab.com, a website closely linked to President Mahmud Ahmadinejad...."

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