The eXile #243 28 Jul 06
The War Nerd A Hezbollah Upon All of Thee!
By Gary Brecher (war_nerd at exile.ru )
<snip>
The Israelis have been coasting on their reputation for a long time, but way back in Gulf War I it was clear they made their record like a Don King fighter, padding their Win column against a bunch of bums. When I saw those pitiful Arab "soldiers" crawling toward US camera crews on their hands and knees to surrender, the first thing that went through my head was, "Whoa, so that's the kind of opponent the Israelis have been showboating against? Well Hell, my high school marching band could've beaten those Arab chickenshits!" I'm not alone in that conclusion either. One of the top US commanders in GW I called the IDF "a bunch of arrogant pricks who wouldn't last ten minutes on a European battlefield." Well, that bit about a "European battlefield" is another sad case of our NATO obsession, but the point is, the IDF doesn't deserve its rep. It did once, back in 1948 and during Suez, when it was manned by double-tough survivors of the European Jews who were determined to show up the book-nerd stereotype by kicking ass from Haifa to Damascus. Those dudes were truly tough.
[...]
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Let's talk about this for a minute.
Here's what Victor posted to the list on Aug 1:
>From the point of view of military and civilian losses
in life and property, Hezbollah has fared poorly. The
ground forces committed by Israel have been small, and
they've had to suffer losses in learning the
appropriate methods for managing military interaction
with Hezbollah units [An orderly tactical retreat is
usually the sign of a well trained, professional
force]. Still, Israel's military potential relative
to that of Hezbollah is large, and the learning curve
of the Israeli army has in the past been very steep so
a momentary setback under current conditions is hardly
the basis for a victory party. Moreover, while I have
considerable respect for the professionalism of
Hezbollah's Iranian advisors, I doubt that even they
can develop an effective responseto a massive Israeli
ground strike by what is essentially a specialised
militia of infrantry and artillery. The fate of the
PLO forces faced with the assembled might of the
Israeli military machine in 1982, does not bode well
for Hezbollah's fortunes in a full-scale ground war.
[...]
<http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20060731/043029.html>
And indeed, I'm sure things look this way from Kibbutz Kfar Hanassi where, no doubt, the IDF's prowess is, at the very least, taken to be a given if not outright celebrated.
But hard questions must be asked: when was the last time the IDF faced a 'real' enemy, one that possessed the discipline and gear required to dish out actual harm?
Bulldozing houses, launching missiles against cars and guarding your "security fence" is not the sort of work that builds a strong combat resume.
So, besides the fact that Israel has more kill toys at its disposal, what basis is there for this belief its offensive against Hezbollah (or, as one of my world weary Brit friends now phrases it, HezB) will merely be a replay of what happened to the PLO in 1982?
We are, in fact, beginning to receive reports of a developing broad front. The IDF wants to press to the Litani river, among other objectives, and claims to have neutralized resistance in the Southern Lebanese combat zone.
But according to outlets such as US-based National Public Radio (NPR), Asia Times, and Ha'aretz, the IDF's push has been slowed to a crawl by its inability - contrary to confident claims by Olmert and company - to "clean" towns and villages along the way.
Hezbollah is well dug in and shows every indication of being able to endure a long siege. Israel's air power and artillery are insufficient to dislodge well defended positions (wasn't this lesson learned as long ago as World War One?). Its ground assault is a more serious threat but advance is proving very costly (this morning, NPR's Ivan Watson reported Hezbollah's highly effective use of wire guided anti tank missiles against Merkava tanks).
Surely, the PLO did not put up this sort of resistance in 1982. The past does not perfectly repeat: this is a new situation.
.d.
The most important isotope of plutonium is 239Pu, with a half-life of 24,110 years.
...................... http://monroelab.net/blog/