[lbo-talk] Poll: Lieberman Surging

Gar Lipow the.typo.boy at gmail.com
Mon Aug 7 14:08:53 PDT 2006


On 8/7/06, Jim Farmelant <farmelantj at juno.com> wrote:
> Isn't one of the wildcards in this race, the number of
> Republicans and independents who might opt
> to vote in the Democratic primary, and presumably
> cast their votes for Lieberman>
>
> Jim F.
>

No - Connecticut is one of those sensible states where you have to register for a party to vote in its primary. Further the deadline to switch from Republican to Democrat was some time ago - May I think. However Independents were allowed to switch to Democrat at the last moment, and Lieberman is popular among Independents. Also, all these polls are fairly meaningless except as they show a trend. They depend on likely voter models, and it is extremely hard to predict who will vote in a primary - especially one that the media starts paying attention to at the last minunte. Obviously what the polls show about the trend is important (to those interested in the contest I mean) - that a long term trend against Lieberman has been at least partially reveresed. We'll know Tuesday. I suspect the election will be close, but no one really knows.. I will note that last week when everyone was talking about 13 point leads, Lamont's staff was leaking info that this was way overstated - that their internal polling consistently showed a lead within the margin of error.



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